Related papers: Model-Based Minimum Bayes Risk Decoding for Text G…

It was recently shown that the problem of decoding messages transmitted through a noisy channel can be formulated as a belief updating task over a probabilistic network [McEliece]. Moreover, it was observed that iterative application of the…

Mixture of autoregressions (MoAR) models provide a model-based approach to the clustering of time series data. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of MoAR models requires the evaluation of products of large numbers of densities of normal…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

The empirical Bayes $g$-modeling approach via the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the normal means problem, yet theoretical guarantees for uncertainty…

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

Histogram-based empirical Bayes methods developed for analyzing data for large numbers of genes, SNPs, or other biological features tend to have large biases when applied to data with a smaller number of features such as genes with…

Energy-based models (EBMs), a.k.a. un-normalized models, have had recent successes in continuous spaces. However, they have not been successfully applied to model text sequences. While decreasing the energy at training samples is…

In random parameter estimation, Bayesian lower bounds (BLBs) for the mean-square error have been noticed to not be tight in a number of cases, even when the sample size, or the signal-to-noise ratio, grow to infinity. In this paper, we…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two…

A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted…

The RRUM is a model that is frequently seen in language assessment studies. The objective of this research is to advance an MCMC algorithm for the Bayesian RRUM. The algorithm starts with estimating correlated attributes. Using a saturated…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from…

Estimation under model misspecification arises in many signal processing problems, where the assumed observation model deviates from the true data-generating mechanism due to errors or simplifications. The misspecified Cram\'er-Rao bound…

Consider testing multiple hypotheses using tests that can only be evaluated by simulation, such as permutation tests or bootstrap tests. This article introduces MMCTest, a sequential algorithm which gives, with arbitrarily high probability,…

We have built PRISM, a "Probabilistic Regression Instrument for Simulating Models". PRISM uses the Bayes linear approach and history matching to construct an approximation ('emulator') of any given model, by combining limited model…

Many popular statistical models for complex phenomena are intractable, in the sense that the likelihood function cannot easily be evaluated. Bayesian estimation in this setting remains challenging, with a lack of computational methodology…

This paper proposes a novel maximum-likelihood (ML) soft-decision decoding framework for linear block codes, termed error-building decoding (EBD). The complete decoding process can be performed using only the parity-check matrix, without…

This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly,…