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In this paper, we propose a policy-guided Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) decoder that achieves near maximum-likelihood decoding (MLD) performance for short block codes. The MCTS decoder searches for test error patterns (TEPs) in the…

Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language…

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) provides an elegant approach to find maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for latent variable models. However, MCML algorithms are computationally expensive when the latent variables are…

In many contexts, there is interest in selecting the most important variables from a very large collection, commonly referred to as support recovery or variable, feature or subset selection. There is an enormous literature proposing a rich…

We propose the Binary Diffusion Probabilistic Model (BDPM), a generative framework specifically designed for data representations in binary form. Conventional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) assume continuous inputs, use…

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

While machine-generated texts (MGTs) offer great convenience, they also pose risks such as disinformation and phishing, highlighting the need for reliable detection. Metric-based methods, which extract statistically distinguishable features…

In many estimation theory and statistical analysis problems, the true data model is unknown, or partially unknown. To describe the model generating the data, parameterized models of some degree are used. A question that arises is which…

Knowledge Bases (KBs) are easy to query, verifiable, and interpretable. They however scale with man-hours and high-quality data. Masked Language Models (MLMs), such as BERT, scale with computing power as well as unstructured raw text data.…

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in a wide range of tasks. However, their reasoning capabilities, particularly in complex domains like mathematics, remain a significant challenge. Value-based process verifiers,…

Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

The Metropolis algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm used to simulate from parameter distributions of interest, such as generalized linear model parameters. The "Metropolis step" is a keystone concept that underlies…

Matrix completion is often applied to data with entries missing not at random (MNAR). For example, consider a recommendation system where users tend to only reveal ratings for items they like. In this case, a matrix completion method that…

Bayesian Generalized Nonlinear Models (BGNLM) offer a flexible nonlinear alternative to GLM while still providing better interpretability than machine learning techniques such as neural networks. In BGNLM, the methods of Bayesian Variable…

Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations…