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Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-12 Trevor Harris , Bo Li , Ryan Sriver

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Chiwoo Park , David J. Borth , Nicholas S. Wilson , Chad N. Hunter

The redshifted 21\,cm line is an emerging tool in observational cosmology that can serve as a direct probe of the intergalactic medium throughout the cosmic timeline. However, the observation of the cosmological 21\,cm signal from early…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-12 Samit Kumar Pal , Abhirup Datta , Aishrila Mazumder , Anshuman Tripathi

Outlier detection of semiconductor devices is important since manufacturing variation is inherently inevitable. In order to properly detect outliers, it is necessary to consider the discrepancy from underlying trend. Conventional methods…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-26 Kyohei Shimozato , Michihiro Shintani , Takashi Sato

Fabrication process variations are a major source of yield degradation in the nano-scale design of integrated circuits (IC), microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and photonic circuits. Stochastic spectral methods are a promising technique…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-11-08 Zheng Zhang , Tsui-Wei Weng , Luca Daniel

Parameter estimation is crucial for modeling, tracking, and control of complex dynamical systems. However, parameter uncertainties can compromise system performance under a controller relying on nominal parameter values. Typically,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-02-20 Mouhyemen Khan , Abhijit Chatterjee

We present a novel approach for fully non-stationary Gaussian process regression (GPR), where all three key parameters -- noise variance, signal variance and lengthscale -- can be simultaneously input-dependent. We develop gradient-based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-08-19 Markus Heinonen , Henrik Mannerström , Juho Rousu , Samuel Kaski , Harri Lähdesmäki

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Linfeng Liu , Liping Liu

We propose a novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric time series models where the conditional expectation is modeled through a parametric function. The proposed class of estimators is based on a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Mirko Armillotta , Paolo Gorgi

We propose an Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) learning algorithm, based on our previous work of GMM expansion idea. The new algorithm brings more robustness and simplicity than classic Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. It also improves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Weiguo Lu , Xuan Wu , Deng Ding , Gangnan Yuan

This article discusses prior distributions for the parameters of Gaussian processes (GPs) that are widely used as surrogate models to emulate expensive computer simulations. The parameters typically involve mean parameters, a variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Mengyang Gu , Victor De Oliveira

In this paper, we propose a robust non-Gaussian process emulator based on the Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator, which is trained on metered time series of voltage phasors and power injections to perform stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-10 Pooja Algikar , Yijun Xu , Lamine Mili

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Jonathan Wenger , Kaiwen Wu , Philipp Hennig , Jacob R. Gardner , Geoff Pleiss , John P. Cunningham

We implemented a geometry optimizer based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to find minimum structures on potential energy surfaces. We tested both a two times differentiable form of the Mat\'{e}rn kernel and the squared exponential…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-09-15 Alexander Denzel , Johannes Kästner

Gaussian process (GP) is a powerful modeling method with applications in machine learning for various engineering and non-engineering fields. Despite numerous benefits of modeling using GPs, the computational complexity associated with GPs…

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a non-parametric Bayesian technique for interpolating or fitting data. The main barrier to further uptake of this powerful tool rests in the computational costs associated with the matrices which arise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Christopher J. Moore , Alvin J. K. Chua , Christopher P. L. Berry , Jonathan R. Gair

The present research builds on a recently proposed spatial prediction method for discretized two-dimensional data, based on a suitably modified planar rotator (MPR) spin model from statistical physics. This approach maps the measured data…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-08 Matúš Lach , Michal Borovský , Milan Žukovič

We propose a two-step pseudo-maximum likelihood procedure for semiparametric single-index regression models where the conditional variance is a known function of the regression and an additional parameter. The Poisson single-index…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-27 Marian Hristache , Weiyu Li , Valentin Patilea

A single-index model (SIM) provides for parsimonious multi-dimensional nonlinear regression by combining parametric (linear) projection with univariate nonparametric (non-linear) regression models. We show that a particular Gaussian process…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-18 Robert B. Gramacy , Heng Lian

The kernel function and its hyperparameters are the central model selection choice in a Gaussian proces (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Typically, the hyperparameters of the kernel are chosen by maximising the marginal likelihood, an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-07 Vidhi Lalchand , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Carl E. Rasmussen