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Linear regression is arguably the most fundamental statistical model; however, the validity of its use in randomized clinical trials, despite being common practice, has never been crystal clear, particularly when stratified or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Wei Ma , Fuyi Tu , Hanzhong Liu

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation. When such a temporal dimension is present, treatment influences not only the outcome value but also the outcome timing, which can move in opposite directions. Motivated by the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Michael Lindon , Nathan Kallus

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) can be used to generate guarantees on treatment effects. However, RCTs often spend unnecessary resources exploring sub-optimal treatments, which can reduce the power of treatment guarantees. To address…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Naveen Raman , Aarti Singh , Bryan Wilder

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu

Background: Stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) involve sequential measurements within clusters over time. Initially, all clusters start in the control condition before crossing over to the intervention on a staggered…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Jale Basten , Katja Ickstadt , Nina Timmesfeld

Much evidence in comparative effectiveness research is based on observational studies. Researchers who conduct observational studies typically assume that there are no unobservable differences between the treated and control groups.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-23 Luke Keele , Stephen O'Neill , Richard Grieve

The analysis of randomized trials is often complicated by the occurrence of intercurrent events and missing values. Even though there are different strategies to address missing values it is still common to require missing values…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 A. Ruiz de Villa , Ll. Badiella

We study identification and estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with a multivalued treatment variable. We also allow for the inclusion of covariates. We show that without additional information, treatment effects are not…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-02 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Juan Carlos Escanciano

Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial is said to occur when a patient randomized to one treatment arm switches to another treatment arm during follow-up. This can occur at the point of disease progression, whereby patients in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Andrew Ying , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) consist of a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of intervention, that finds effective treatments for individual patients according to patient information history. DTRs can be estimated from models…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Zeyu Bian , Erica EM Moodie , Susan M Shortreed , Sahir Bhatnagar

We propose an approach to estimate the effect of multiple simultaneous interventions in the presence of hidden confounders. To overcome the problem of hidden confounding, we consider the setting where we have access to not only the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-17 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Ricardo Silva

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-11 Devin Incerti , Michael T Bretscher , Ray Lin , Chris Harbron

Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing…

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

Understanding and characterizing treatment effect variation in randomized experiments has become essential for going beyond the "black box" of the average treatment effect. Nonetheless, traditional statistical approaches often ignore or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate the causal effects of a proposed treatment in many areas of science, from medicine and healthcare to the physical and biological sciences, from the social sciences to engineering, to public…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-30 Christina Lee Yu , Edoardo M Airoldi , Christian Borgs , Jennifer T Chayes

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

Multi-Regional Clinical Trials (MRCTs) play a central role in the development of new therapies by enabling the simultaneous evaluation of drug efficacy and safety across diverse global populations. Assessing the consistency of treatment…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-10 Kunhai Qing , Xinru Ren , Jin Xu , Menggang Yu

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus