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Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-09-24 Zhanwei Du , Chao Gao , Yuan Bai , Yongjian Yang , Petter Holme

In fact-checking applications, a common reason to reject a claim is to detect the presence of erroneous cause-effect relationships between the events at play. However, current automated fact-checking methods lack dedicated causal-based…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Youssra Rebboud , Pasquale Lisena , Raphael Troncy

Prevention is better than cure. This old truth applies not only to the prevention of diseases but also to the prevention of issues with AI models used in medicine. The source of malfunctioning of predictive models often lies not in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Weronika Hryniewska , Piotr Czarnecki , Jakub Wiśniewski , Przemysław Bombiński , Przemysław Biecek

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Raha Moraffah , Paras Sheth , Mansooreh Karami , Anchit Bhattacharya , Qianru Wang , Anique Tahir , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Leah LeJeune , Navid Ghaffarzadegan , Lauren Childs , Omar Saucedo

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Yoshiharu Maeno

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-04 Miguel Navascues , Costantino Budroni , Yelena Guryanova

Causal emergence is the theory that macroscales can reduce the noise in causal relationships, leading to stronger causes at the macroscale. First identified using the effective information and later the integrated information in model…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-02-07 Renzo Comolatti , Erik Hoel

Disease outbreaks force the governments to rapid decisions to deal with. However, the rapid stream of decision-making could be costly in terms of the democratic representativeness. The aim of the paper is to investigate the trade-off…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-18 A. E. Biondo , G. Brosio , A. Pluchino , R. Zanola

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-05-06 Robin J. Evans , Musa Mammadov

Although prospective logistic regression is the standard method of analysis for case-control data, it has been recently noted that in genetic epidemiologic studies one can use the ``retrospective'' likelihood to gain major power by…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-25 Nilanjan Chatterjee , Yi-Hau Chen , Sheng Luo , Raymond J. Carroll

The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-30 Tom Britton

Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Mutong Liu , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

Gene-gene and gene-environment interactions are widely believed to play significant roles in explaining the variability of complex traits. While substantial research exists in this area, a comprehensive statistical framework that addresses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Durba Bhattacharya , Sourabh Bhattacharya

In survival analysis, traditional models assume all individuals will eventually experience the event of interest. However, advances in therapeutics have led to multiple clinical contexts with potentially curative therapies, and in these…

Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…

In this work we apply the methodology of integral priors to handle Bayesian model selection in binomial regression models with a general link function. These models are very often used to investigate associations and risks in…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-01 Diego Salmeron , Juan Antonio Cano , C. P. Robert

Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-25 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-03 Joel C. Miller , Anja C. Slim , Erik M. Volz