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Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Yihan Bao , Lauren Bell , Elizabeth Williamson , Claire Garnett , Tianchen Qian

RCTs sometimes test interventions that aim to improve existing services targeted to a subset of individuals identified after randomization. Accordingly, the treatment could affect the composition of service recipients and the offered…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Peter Z. Schochet

Estimating the average treatment causal effect in clustered data often involves dealing with unmeasured cluster-specific confounding variables. Such variables may be correlated with the measured unit covariates and outcome. When the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Zhulin He

Inverse propensity-score weighted (IPW) estimators are prevalent in causal inference for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies. Under unconfoundedness, given accurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, the size of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-03 Alkis Kalavasis , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Recurrent events are common and important clinical trial endpoints in many disease areas, e.g., cardiovascular hospitalizations in heart failure, relapses in multiple sclerosis, or exacerbations in asthma. During a trial, patients may…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Jiren Sun , Tobias Mutze , Richard Cook , Tianmeng Lyu

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) may suffer from limited scope. In particular, samples may be unrepresentative: some RCTs over- or under- sample individuals with certain characteristics compared to the target population, for which one…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-15 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

In the causal inference literature an estimator belonging to a class of semi-parametric estimators is called robust if it has desirable properties under the assumption that at least one of the working models is correctly specified. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Ingeborg Waernbaum , Laura Pazzagli

Causal inference requires evaluating models on balanced distributions between treatment and control groups, while training data often exhibits imbalance due to historical decision-making policies. Most conventional statistical methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Akira Tanimoto

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

A key methodological challenge in observational studies with interference between units is twofold: (1) each unit's outcome may depend on many others' treatments, and (2) treatment assignments may exhibit complex dependencies across units.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Souhardya Sengupta , Kosuke Imai , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Propensity score (PS) methods are widely used in observational studies to reduce confounding and estimate causal treatment effects. However, the validity of PS-based causal estimators depends heavily on correct model specification, and…

How to deal with missing data in observational studies is a common concern for causal inference. When the covariates are missing at random (MAR), multiple approaches have been provided to help solve the issue. However, if the exposure is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Yuliang Shi , Yeying Zhu , Joel A. Dubin

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) is widely used in many areas when data are subject to unrepresentativeness, missingness, or selection bias. An inevitable challenge with the use of IPW is that the IPW estimator can be remarkably unstable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-29 Yukun Liu , Yan Fan

In observational studies, the propensity score plays a central role in estimating causal effects of interest. The inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used for this purpose. However, if the propensity score model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Tomoyuki Nakagawa

In causal inference, the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimator is commonly used to estimate causal effects for estimands within the class of Weighted Average Treatment Effect (WATE). When constructing confidence intervals (CIs),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-14 Shunichiro Orihara

In randomized clinical trials, adjusting for baseline covariates can improve credibility and efficiency for demonstrating and quantifying treatment effects. This article studies the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-27 Marlena S. Bannick , Jun Shao , Jingyi Liu , Yu Du , Yanyao Yi , Ting Ye

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-24 Insung Kong , Yuha Park , Joonhyuk Jung , Kwonsang Lee , Yongdai Kim

The research in this paper gives a systematic investigation on the asymptotic behaviours of four inverse probability weighting (IPW)-based estimators for conditional average treatment effect, with nonparametrically, semiparametrically,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Niwen Zhou , Lixing Zhu

Anecdotally, using an estimated propensity score is superior to the true propensity score in estimating the average treatment effect based on observational data. However, this claim comes with several qualifications: it holds only if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Fangzhou Su , Wenlong Mou , Peng Ding , Martin J. Wainwright

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen
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