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A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Anthony Gruber , Max Gunzburger , Lili Ju , Zhu Wang

In this article, we present a review of the recent developments on the topic of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm, in the paradigm of applications in financial engineering. We specifically focus on the recent studies conducted in two…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-30 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 Daniel W. Heck , Antony M. Overstall , Quentin F. Gronau , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

We propose an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator for $\mathbb{E}[g(X_{t_1}, \cdots, X_{t_n})]$, where $X$ is a diffusion process defined by a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE). The main idea is to start instead from a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-08 Pierre Henry-Labordere , Xiaolu Tan , Nizar Touzi

We rely on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to interpret searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and elsewhere. These simulations result in noisy and approximate estimators of selection efficiencies and likelihoods. In this…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-04-22 Christopher Chang , Benjamin Farmer , Andrew Fowlie , Anders Kvellestad

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-22 Nathan Collier , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Erik von Schwerin , Raul Tempone

Multimodality of the likelihood in Gaussian mixtures is a well-known problem. The choice of the initial parameter vector for the numerical optimizer may affect whether the optimizer finds the global maximum, or gets trapped in a local…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Francesca Azzolini , Hans Skaug

We describe a regression-based method, generally referred to as the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method, to speed up exposure calculations of a portfolio. We assume that the portfolio contains several exotic derivatives that are priced…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-18 Yuriy Krepkiy , Asif Lakhany , Amber Zhang

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

We propose and analyze a Multilevel Richardson-Romberg (MLRR) estimator which combines the higher order bias cancellation of the Multistep Richardson-Romberg method introduced in [Pa07] and the variance control resulting from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-21 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Jonathan Spence , Aretha Teckentrup

We interpret uncertainty in a model for seismic wave propagation by treating the model parameters as random variables, and apply the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to reduce the cost of approximating expected values of selected,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-06 Marco Ballesio , Joakim Beck , Anamika Pandey , Laura Parisi , Erik von Schwerin , Raul Tempone

This paper provides a framework in which multilevel Monte Carlo and continuous level Monte Carlo can be compared. In continuous level Monte Carlo the level of refinement is determined by an exponentially distributed random variable, which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-13 Cedric Aaron Beschle , Andrea Barth

Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Yue Wu , Nick Polydorides

We use available measurements to estimate the unknown parameters (variance, smoothness parameter, and covariance length) of a covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. To overcome cubic complexity in the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-13 Alexander Litvinenko , Ying Sun , Marc G. Genton , David Keyes

This work addresses uncertainty quantification of electromagnetic devices determined by the eddy current problem. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is used for the treatment of uncertain parameters while the devices are discretized…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang