Related papers: Covariance estimation using h-statistics in Monte …

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

When the target parameter for inference is a real-valued, continuous function of probabilities in the $k$-sample multinomial problem, variance estimation may be challenging. In small samples or when the function is nondifferentiable at the…

In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

Multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel and multifidelity Monte Carlo, multilevel stochastic collocation, or delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo, have become standard uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools for a wide class of…

This paper studies a non-random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, namely the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method in the context of Subset Simulation used for structural reliability analysis. The HMC method relies on a deterministic…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented…

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling algorithm exploits Hamiltonian dynamics to construct efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which has become increasingly popular in machine learning and statistics. Since HMC uses the gradient…

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo are state-of-the-art methods for taking samples from high-dimensional distributions with a differentiable density function. To generate samples, they numerically integrate…

Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Despite its prevalence in statistical datasets, heteroscedasticity (non-constant sample variances) has been largely ignored in the high-dimensional statistics literature. Recently, studies have shown that the Lasso can accommodate…

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…

We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E[\max\{U_1(Y), \pi(Y)\}]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[X\ |\ Y]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When…

Monte Carlo methods play important part in modern statistical physics. The application of these methods suffer from two main difficulties.The first is caused by the relatively small number of particles that can participate in any numerical…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach that exhibits favourable exploration properties in high-dimensional models such as neural networks. Unfortunately, HMC has limited use in large-data regimes and…