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Sufficient statistics are derived for the population size and parameters of commonly used closed population mark-recapture models. Rao-Blackwellization details for improving estimators that are not functions of the statistics are presented.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-30 Kyle Vincent

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-12 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Inés P. Mariño , Joaquín Míguez

We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Biao Yang , Jonathan R. Stroud , Gabriel Huerta

The decentralized particle filter (DPF) was proposed recently to increase the level of parallelism of particle filtering. Given a decomposition of the state space into two nested sets of variables, the DPF uses a particle filter to sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-03-13 Mohamed Osama Ahmed , Pouyan T. Bibalan , Nando de Freitas , Simon Fauvel

We consider sequential state and parameter learning in state-space models with intractable state transition and observation processes. By exploiting low-rank tensor train (TT) decompositions, we propose new sequential learning methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-04 Yiran Zhao , Tiangang Cui

Piecewise constant denoising can be solved either by deterministic optimization approaches, based on the Potts model, or by stochastic Bayesian procedures. The former lead to low computational time but require the selection of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-11 Jordan Frecon , Nelly Pustelnik , Nicolas Dobigeon , Herwig Wendt , Patrice Abry

Data assimilation methods aim at estimating the state of a system by combining observations with a physical model. When sequential data assimilation is considered, the joint distribution of the latent state and the observations is described…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-23 Thi Tuyet Trang Chau , Pierre Ailliot , Valérie Monbet , Pierre Tandeo

Binary segmentation, which is sequential in nature is thus far the most widely used method for identifying multiple change points in statistical models. Here we propose a top down methodology called arbitrary segmentation that proceeds in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-12 Abhishek Kaul , Venkata K Jandhyala , Stergios B Fotopoulos

Stochastic processes that involve the creation of objects and relations over time are widespread, but relatively poorly studied. For example, accurate fault diagnosis in factory assembly processes requires inferring the probabilities of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-09-13 P. Domingos , S. Sanghai , D. Weld

This note presents a new method for set-based joint state and parameter estimation of discrete-time systems using constrained zonotopes. This is done by extending previous set-based state estimation methods to include parameter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-11 Brenner S. Rego , Diego Locatelli , Davide M. Raimondo , Guilherme V. Raffo

During the last two decades there has been a growing interest in Particle Filtering (PF). However, PF suffers from two long-standing problems that are referred to as sample degeneracy and impoverishment. We are investigating methods that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-31 Tiancheng Li , Shudong Sun , Tariq P. Sattar , Juan M. Corchado

We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

Population Monte Carlo has been introduced as a sequential importance sampling technique to overcome poor fit of the importance function. In this paper, we compare the performances of the original Population Monte Carlo algorithm with a…

Computation · Statistics 2008-02-26 Alessandra Iacobucci , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian Robert

Particle filters are computational techniques for estimating the state of dynamical systems by integrating observational data with model predictions. This work introduces a class of Localized Particle Filters (LPFs) that exploit spatial…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-10 Dan Crisan , Eliana Fausti

This paper presents parallel-in-time state estimation methods for systems with Slow-Rate inTegrated Measurements (SRTM). Integrated measurements are common in various applications, and they appear in analysis of data resulting from…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-02 Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Simo Särkkä

A crucial function for automated vehicle technologies is accurate localization. Lane-level accuracy is not readily available from low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers because of factors such as multipath error and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-03-28 Macheng Shen , Ding Zhao , Jing Sun , Huei Peng

In this paper, we present a novel optimization algorithm designed specifically for estimating state-space models to deal with heavy-tailed measurement noise and constraints. Our algorithm addresses two significant limitations found in…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-19 Yifan Yu , Shengjie Xiu , Daniel P. Palomar

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-11-12 Kairui Hao , Ilias Bilionis

This paper proposes a novel global optimization algorithm, Particle Filter-Based Optimization (PFO), designed for a class of stochastic optimization problems in which the objective function lacks an analytical form and is subject to noisy…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Mostafa Eslami , Maryam Babazadeh

Learning a dynamical system from input/output data is a fundamental task in the control design pipeline. In the partially observed setting there are two components to identification: parameter estimation to learn the Markov parameters, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Han Wang , James Anderson