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Point forecasting for graph-structured multivariate time series is a fundamental problem, but rigorous uncertainty quantification for such predictions is still underexplored. Conformal prediction (CP) offers uncertainty estimation with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ruichao Guo , Xingyao Han , Luo Wenshui , Zhe Liu , Chen Gong , Hesheng Wang

The graph structure of a Bayesian network (BN) can be learned from data using the well-known score-and-search approach. Previous work has shown that incorporating structured representations of the conditional probability distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Charupriya Sharma , Peter van Beek

Sparse methods are the standard approach to obtain interpretable models with high prediction accuracy. Alternatively, algorithmic ensemble methods can achieve higher prediction accuracy at the cost of loss of interpretability. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Anthony Christidis , Stefan Van Aelst , Ruben Zamar

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Han Wang , Chao Ning

In semantic segmentation, even state-of-the-art deep learning models fall short of the performance required in certain high-stakes applications such as medical image analysis. In these cases, performance can be improved by allowing a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Bruno Laboissiere Camargos Borges , Bruno Machado Pacheco , Danilo Silva

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

We develop a new approximative estimation method for conditional Shapley values obtained using a linear regression model. We develop a new estimation method and outperform existing methodology and implementations. Compared to the sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Fredrik Lohne Aanes

Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) is a powerful parameter estimation method for log-linear models, which avoids calculation of the partition function or its derivatives at each training step, a computationally demanding step in many cases.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-09-07 Zhuang Ma , Michael Collins

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Establishing reliable image correspondences is essential for many robotic vision problems. However, existing methods often struggle in challenging scenarios with large viewpoint changes or textureless regions, where incorrect cor-…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Sicheng Li , Zaiwang Gu , Jie Zhang , Qing Guo , Xudong Jiang , Jun Cheng

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

Physics-informed machine learning offers a promising framework for solving complex partial differential equations (PDEs) by integrating observational data with governing physical laws. However, learning PDEs with varying parameters and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Zhuoyuan Wang , Raffaele Romagnoli , Saviz Mowlavi , Yorie Nakahira

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Imputing missing values in spatial-temporal traffic data is essential for intelligent transportation systems. Among advanced imputation methods, score-based diffusion models have demonstrated competitive performance. These models generate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Xiaowei Mao , Huihu Ding , Yan Lin , Tingrui Wu , Shengnan Guo , Dazhuo Qiu , Feiling Fang , Jilin Hu , Huaiyu Wan

Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable $\mathbf{x}$ and a dependent variable $\mathbf{y}$ by modeling their conditional probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Jonas Rothfuss , Fabio Ferreira , Simon Walther , Maxim Ulrich

While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yonghong Li , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer