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Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Probabilistic evaluation improves the trade-off between target coverage and OAR sparing in IMPT but remains computationally demanding. This study proposes sparse probabilistic evaluation (SPE), a computationally efficient approach…

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Paul Melki , Lionel Bombrun , Boubacar Diallo , Jérôme Dias , Jean-Pierre da Costa

Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

To explain the decision of any model, we extend the notion of probabilistic Sufficient Explanations (P-SE). For each instance, this approach selects the minimal subset of features that is sufficient to yield the same prediction with high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-17 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J. B Brunel

We propose a conformal prediction method for constructing tight simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple, potentially related, numerical outputs given a single input. This method can be combined with any multi-target regression model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Yunjie Fan , Matteo Sesia

This paper proposes a new method for finding the highest predictive density set or region, within the heteroscedastic regression framework. This framework enjoys the property that any highest predictive density set is a translation of some…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-09 Max Sampson , Kung-Sik Chan

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

Explanation fidelity, which measures how accurately an explanation reflects a model's true reasoning, remains critically underexplored in recommender systems. We introduce SPINRec (Stochastic Path Integration for Neural Recommender…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Oren Barkan , Yahlly Schein , Yehonatan Elisha , Veronika Bogina , Mikhail Baklanov , Noam Koenigstein

The rise of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) has popularized the concept of solving differential equations via residual minimization. However, neural networks are often viewed as ``black boxes" requiring significant computational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Ayman Mourad , Fatima Mroue

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Weicao Deng , Sangwoo Park , Min Li , Osvaldo Simeone

For the past two decades, single-index model, a special case of projection pursuit regression, has proven to be an efficient way of coping with the high dimensional problem in nonparametric regression. In this paper, based on weakly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Li Wang , Lijian Yang

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Statistical learning methods are widely utilized in tackling complex problems due to their flexibility, good predictive performance and its ability to capture complex relationships among variables. Additionally, recently developed automatic…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Natalia da Silva , Ignacio Alvarez-Castro , Leonardo Moreno , Andrés Sosa