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Recently, the prediction-correction method has been developed to solve nonlinear convex optimization problems. However, its convergence rate is often poor since large regularization parameters are set to ensure convergence conditions. In…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-05 Sai Wang

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) is a method for discovering nonlinear dynamical system models from data. Quantifying uncertainty in SINDy models is essential for assessing their reliability, particularly in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Urban Fasel

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Yajie Bao , Yuyang Huo , Haojie Ren , Changliang Zou

This paper develops a conformal method to compute prediction intervals for non-parametric regression that can automatically adapt to skewed data. Leveraging black-box machine learning algorithms to estimate the conditional distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Matteo Sesia , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Meshi Bashari , Roy Maor Lotan , Yonghoon Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

This paper introduces a new addition to the SPINEX (Similarity-based Predictions with Explainable Neighbors Exploration) family, tailored specifically for time series and forecasting analysis. This new algorithm leverages the concept of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Ahmed Z Naser , MZ Naser

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kerri Lu , Dan M. Kluger , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

In predictive modeling for high-stake decision-making, predictors must be not only accurate but also reliable. Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising approach for obtaining the confidence of prediction results with fewer theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-02 Diptesh Das , Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Local perturbations around contours strongly disturb the final result of computer vision tasks. It is common to introduce a priori information in the estimation process. Improvement can be achieved via a deformable model such as the snake…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-04-01 R. L. B. Breder , Vania V. Estrela , J. T. de Assis