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This paper proposes a statistically optimal approach for learning a function value using a confidence interval in a wide range of models, including general non-parametric estimation of an expected loss described as a stochastic programming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-07 Arnab Ganguly , Tobias Sutter

When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-30 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Abigail Z. Jacobs , Kristina Lisa Klinkner , Aaron Clauset

Transformers have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of domains. While their ability to perform reinforcement learning in-context has been established both theoretically and empirically, their behavior in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-24 Baiyuan Chen , Shinji Ito , Masaaki Imaizumi

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

Based on the heuristics that maintaining presumptions can be beneficial in uncertain environments, we propose a set of basic axioms for learning systems to incorporate the concept of prejudice. The simplest, memoryless model of a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 Andreas U. Schmidt

We study online resource allocation under non-stationary demand with a minimum offline data requirement. In this problem, a decision-maker must allocate multiple types of resources to sequentially arriving queries over a finite horizon.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Yiding Feng , Jiashuo Jiang , Yige Wang

Non-stationary environments are challenging for reinforcement learning algorithms. If the state transition and/or reward functions change based on latent factors, the agent is effectively tasked with optimizing a behavior that maximizes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Lucas N. Alegre , Ana L. C. Bazzan , Bruno C. da Silva

Motivated by the principle of satisficing in decision-making, we study satisficing regret guarantees for nonstationary $K$-armed bandits. We show that in the general realizable, piecewise-stationary setting with $L$ stationary segments, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yixuan Zhang , Ruihao Zhu , Qiaomin Xie

We consider minimisation of dynamic regret in non-stationary bandits with a slowly varying property. Namely, we assume that arms' rewards are stochastic and independent over time, but that the absolute difference between the expected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Ramakrishnan Krishnamurthy , Aditya Gopalan

Bandit Convex Optimization is a fundamental class of sequential decision-making problems, where the learner selects actions from a continuous domain and observes a loss (but not its gradient) at only one point per round. We study this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Xiaoqi Liu , Dorian Baudry , Julian Zimmert , Patrick Rebeschini , Arya Akhavan

Thompson sampling has proven effective across a wide range of stationary bandit environments. However, as we demonstrate in this paper, it can perform poorly when applied to non-stationary environments. We attribute such failures to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Yueyang Liu , Xu Kuang , Benjamin Van Roy

Users of recommender systems often behave in a non-stationary fashion, due to their evolving preferences and tastes over time. In this work, we propose a practical approach for fast personalization to non-stationary users. The key idea is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-02 Joey Hong , Branislav Kveton , Manzil Zaheer , Yinlam Chow , Amr Ahmed , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Craig Boutilier

Firms increasingly delegate decisions to learning algorithms in platform markets. Standard algorithms perform well when platform policies are stationary, but firms often face ambiguity about whether policies are stationary or adapt…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-11 Kyohei Okumura

We study the problem of Online Convex Optimization (OCO) with memory, which allows loss functions to depend on past decisions and thus captures temporal effects of learning problems. In this paper, we introduce dynamic policy regret as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Peng Zhao , Yu-Hu Yan , Yu-Xiang Wang , Zhi-Hua Zhou

Many modern datasets don't fit neatly into $n \times p$ matrices, but most techniques for measuring statistical stability expect rectangular data. We study methods for stability assessment on non-rectangular data, using statistical learning…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-23 Kris Sankaran

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-28 Taylor Smith , Andreas Morr , Christof Schötz , Niklas Boers

A new framework for nonlinear system identification is presented in terms of optimal fitting of stable nonlinear state space equations to input/output/state data, with a performance objective defined as a measure of robustness of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Mark M. Tobenkin , Ian R. Manchester , Jennifer Wang , Alexandre Megretski , Russ Tedrake

We address the problem of recovering signals from samples taken at their rate of innovation. Our only assumption is that the sampling system is such that the parameters defining the signal can be stably determined from the samples, a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-05-28 Tomer Michaeli , Yonina C. Eldar

In this work we investigate stochastic non-convex optimization problems where the objective is an expectation over smooth loss functions, and the goal is to find an approximate stationary point. The most popular approach to handling such…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Kfir Y. Levy , Ali Kavis , Volkan Cevher

We propose a novel framework for learning stabilizable nonlinear dynamical systems for continuous control tasks in robotics. The key contribution is a control-theoretic regularizer for dynamics fitting rooted in the notion of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-01 Sumeet Singh , Spencer M. Richards , Vikas Sindhwani , Jean-Jacques E. Slotine , Marco Pavone