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When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

The Certainty Equivalent heuristic (CE) is a widely-used algorithm for various dynamic resource allocation problems in OR and OM. Despite its popularity, existing theoretical guarantees of CE are limited to settings satisfying restrictive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-14 Yilun Chen , Wenjia Wang

We develop a semiparametric framework for inference on the mean response in missing-data settings using a corrected posterior distribution. Our approach is tailored to Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), which is a powerful…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu

Decision trees and their ensembles are endowed with a rich set of diagnostic tools for ranking and screening variables in a predictive model. Despite the widespread use of tree based variable importance measures, pinning down their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-14 Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

We study the behavior of error bounds for multiclass classification under suitable margin conditions. For a wide variety of methods we prove that the classification error under a hard-margin condition decreases exponentially fast without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Stefano Vigogna , Giacomo Meanti , Ernesto De Vito , Lorenzo Rosasco

While Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, guaranteeing conditional coverage remains a central challenge. Although finite-sample, distribution-free conditional validity is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Félix Laplante

A recent work of the authors on the analysis of pairwise comparison matrices that can be made consistent by the modification of a few elements is continued and extended. Inconsistency indices are defined for indicating the overall quality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-05 Sándor Bozóki , János Fülöp , Attila Poesz

Discrete supervised learning problems such as classification are often tackled by introducing a continuous surrogate problem akin to regression. Bounding the original error, between estimate and solution, by the surrogate error endows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-16 Vivien Cabannes , Alessandro Rudi , Francis Bach

Machine learning has opened up new tools for financial fraud detection. Using a sample of annotated transactions, a machine learning classification algorithm learns to detect frauds. With growing credit card transaction volumes and rising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Gayan K. Kulatilleke

High dimensional covariance estimation and graphical models is a contemporary topic in statistics and machine learning having widespread applications. An important line of research in this regard is to shrink the extreme spectrum of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-28 Sang-Yun Oh , Bala Rajaratnam , Joong-Ho Won

Existing statistical learning guarantees for general kernel regressors often yield loose bounds when used with finite-rank kernels. Yet, finite-rank kernels naturally appear in several machine learning problems, e.g.\ when fine-tuning a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Tin Sum Cheng , Aurelien Lucchi , Ivan Dokmanić , Anastasis Kratsios , David Belius

In this work, we study the learning theory of reward modeling with pairwise comparison data using deep neural networks. We establish a novel non-asymptotic regret bound for deep reward estimators in a non-parametric setting, which depends…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-13 Yuanhang Luo , Yeheng Ge , Ruijian Han , Guohao Shen

Reinforcement learning has been explored for many problems, from video games with deterministic environments to portfolio and operations management in which scenarios are stochastic; however, there have been few attempts to test these…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-19 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Jesús Solano , Alejandro Correa-Bahnsen , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Sparse representation over redundant dictionaries constitutes a good model for many classes of signals (e.g., patches of natural images, segments of speech signals, etc.). However, despite its popularity, very little is known about the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-07 Rotem Mulayoff , Tomer Michaeli

We provide a new flexible framework for inference with the instrumental variable model. Rather than using linear specifications, functions characterizing the effects of instruments and other explanatory variables are estimated using machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Robert E. McCulloch , Rodney A. Sparapani , Brent R. Logan , Purushottam W. Laud

The credit card has become the most popular payment method for both online and offline transactions. The necessity to create a fraud detection algorithm to precisely identify and stop fraudulent activity arises as a result of both the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-14 AlsharifHasan Mohamad Aburbeian , Huthaifa I. Ashqar

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

While SGD, which samples from the data with replacement is widely studied in theory, a variant called Random Reshuffling (RR) is more common in practice. RR iterates through random permutations of the dataset and has been shown to converge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Amirkeivan Mohtashami , Sebastian Stich , Martin Jaggi

One approach for reducing run time and improving efficiency of machine learning is to reduce the convergence rate of the optimization algorithm used. Shuffling is an algorithm technique that is widely used in machine learning, but it only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Yuetong Xu , Baharan Mirzasoleiman

We clarify what fairness guarantees we can and cannot expect to follow from unconstrained machine learning. Specifically, we characterize when unconstrained learning on its own implies group calibration, that is, the outcome variable is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-28 Lydia T. Liu , Max Simchowitz , Moritz Hardt