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The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes

The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes

We present a detailed study of surrogate losses and algorithms for multi-label learning, supported by $H$-consistency bounds. We first show that, for the simplest form of multi-label loss (the popular Hamming loss), the well-known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Anqi Mao , Mehryar Mohri , Yutao Zhong

We introduce the first one-stage Top-$k$ Learning-to-Defer framework, which unifies prediction and deferral by learning a shared score-based model that selects the $k$ most cost-effective entities-labels or experts-per input. While existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-14 Yannis Montreuil , Axel Carlier , Lai Xing Ng , Wei Tsang Ooi

We propose a novel family of decision-aware surrogate losses, called Perturbation Gradient (PG) losses, for the predict-then-optimize framework. The key idea is to connect the expected downstream decision loss with the directional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Michael Huang , Vishal Gupta

We consider the problem of $n$-class classification ($n\geq 2$), where the classifier can choose to abstain from making predictions at a given cost, say, a factor $\alpha$ of the cost of misclassification. Designing consistent algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-18 Harish G. Ramaswamy , Ambuj Tewari , Shivani Agarwal

Evaluation metrics in machine learning are often hardly taken as loss functions, as they could be non-differentiable and non-decomposable, e.g., average precision and F1 score. This paper aims to address this problem by revisiting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Tao Huang , Zekang Li , Hua Lu , Yong Shan , Shusheng Yang , Yang Feng , Fei Wang , Shan You , Chang Xu

Classification with abstention has gained a lot of attention in recent years as it allows to incorporate human decision-makers in the process. Yet, abstention can potentially amplify disparities and lead to discriminatory predictions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Nicolas Schreuder , Evgenii Chzhen

Structured prediction involves learning to predict complex structures rather than simple scalar values. The main challenge arises from the non-Euclidean nature of the output space, which generally requires relaxing the problem formulation.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-19 Junjie Yang , Matthieu Labeau , Florence d'Alché-Buc

We study the consistency of surrogate risks for robust binary classification. It is common to learn robust classifiers by adversarial training, which seeks to minimize the expected $0$-$1$ loss when each example can be maliciously corrupted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Natalie Frank , Jonathan Niles-Weed

Decision support systems often rely on solving complex optimization problems that may require to estimate uncertain parameters beforehand. Recent studies have shown how using traditionally trained estimators for this task can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Gaetano Signorelli , Michele Lombardi

For semi-supervised techniques to be applied safely in practice we at least want methods to outperform their supervised counterparts. We study this question for classification using the well-known quadratic surrogate loss function. Using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-26 Jesse H. Krijthe , Marco Loog

The Two-Stage Learning-to-Defer (L2D) framework has been extensively studied for classification and, more recently, regression tasks. However, many real-world applications require solving both tasks jointly in a multi-task setting. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-15 Yannis Montreuil , Shu Heng Yeo , Axel Carlier , Lai Xing Ng , Wei Tsang Ooi

We carefully study how well minimizing convex surrogate loss functions, corresponds to minimizing the misclassification error rate for the problem of binary classification with linear predictors. In particular, we show that amongst all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Shai Ben-David , David Loker , Nathan Srebro , Karthik Sridharan

Often, the performance on a supervised machine learning task is evaluated with a emph{task loss} function that cannot be optimized directly. Examples of such loss functions include the classification error, the edit distance and the BLEU…

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Emily Hsiao , Layla Parast

Learning to rank is a supervised learning problem where the output space is the space of rankings but the supervision space is the space of relevance scores. We make theoretical contributions to the learning to rank problem both in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-06 Sougata Chaudhuri , Ambuj Tewari

We study a family of algorithms, which we refer to as local update methods, that generalize many federated learning and meta-learning algorithms. We prove that for quadratic objectives, local update methods perform stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Zachary Charles , Jakub Konečný

We construct and analyze active learning algorithms for the problem of binary classification with abstention. We consider three abstention settings: \emph{fixed-cost} and two variants of \emph{bounded-rate} abstention, and for each of them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Tara Javidi

Multi-horizon time-series forecasting involves simultaneously making predictions for a consecutive sequence of subsequent time steps. This task arises in many application domains, such as healthcare and finance, where mispredictions can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Luca Stradiotti , Laurens Devos , Anna Monreale , Jesse Davis , Andrea Pugnana