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Understanding turbulence is the key to our comprehension of many natural and technological flow processes. At the heart of this phenomenon lies its intricate multi-scale nature, describing the coupling between different-sized eddies in…

Knowing the uncertainty in a prediction is critical when making expensive investment decisions and when patient safety is paramount, but machine learning (ML) models in drug discovery typically provide only a single best estimate and ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Stanley E. Lazic , Dominic P. Williams

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

Turbulent fluid flows are among the most computationally demanding problems in science, requiring enormous computational resources that become prohibitive at high flow speeds. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) represent a radically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sifan Wang , Shyam Sankaran , Xiantao Fan , Panos Stinis , Paris Perdikaris

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Maiya Goloburda , Roman Vashurin , Fedor Chernogorsky , Nurkhan Laiyk , Daniil Orel , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

We provide an approach enabling one to employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for uncertainty quantification. Our approach is applicable to systems where observations are scarce (or even lacking), these being typical situations…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-08-12 Milad Panahi , Giovanni Michele Porta , Monica Riva , Alberto Guadagnini

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning is currently drawing increasing research interest, driven by the rapid deployment of deep neural networks across different fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , Apostolos F Psaros , George Em Karniadakis

This work determines the inaccuracy of using Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in transition to turbulent flow regimes by predicting the model-based discrepancies between RANS and large eddy simulation (LES) models…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-01-21 Mustafa Usta , Ali Tosyali

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Joachim Sicking , Maram Akila , Jan David Schneider , Fabian Hüger , Peter Schlicht , Tim Wirtz , Stefan Wrobel

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-09 Andrew Thompson

Quantifying the uncertainty of supervised learning models plays an important role in making more reliable predictions. Epistemic uncertainty, which usually is due to insufficient knowledge about the model, can be reduced by collecting more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-27 Xinlei Zhou , Han Liu , Farhad Pourpanah , Tieyong Zeng , Xizhao Wang

Fluid turbulence is characterized by strong coupling across a broad range of scales. Furthermore, besides the usual local cascades, such coupling may extend to interactions that are non-local in scale-space. As such the computational…

Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Matthew A. Chan , Maria J. Molina , Christopher A. Metzler

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Idan Fonea , Amir Peles , Sivan Niv , Goren Gordon , Amir Natan

High-fidelity scale-resolving simulations of turbulent flows quickly become prohibitively expensive, especially at high Reynolds numbers. As a remedy, we may use multifidelity models (MFM) to construct predictive models for flow quantities…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-06-14 Saleh Rezaeiravesh , Timofey Mukha , Philipp Schlatter

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Manuel Haußmann , Ramon Winterhalder , Maria Ubiali

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are typically deterministic in nature and lack intrinsic mechanisms to quantify epistemic uncertainty, which reflects the model's lack of knowledge or ignorance of its own representations. We theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Li Ju , Mayank Nautiyal , Andreas Hellander , Ekta Vats , Prashant Singh

We describe a computational framework linking Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods for continuum problems depending on random parameters with Equation-Free (EF) methods for performing continuum deterministic numerics by acting directly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Yu Zou , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Quantum Extreme Learning Machine (QELM) is an emerging hybrid quantum machine learning framework that leverages quantum system dynamics to enhance classical models. However, QELM can suffer from the exponential concentration problem, where…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-24 Payal D. Solanki , Anh Pham