English
Related papers

Related papers: Conformal Contextual Robust Optimization

200 papers

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Many real-world optimization problems involve uncertain parameters with probability distributions that can be estimated using contextual feature information. In contrast to the standard approach of first estimating the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Meng Qi , Paul Grigas , Zuo-Jun Max Shen

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Prediction deviations of different uncertainties have varying impacts on downstream decision-making. Improving the prediction accuracy of critical uncertainties with significant impacts on decision-making quality yields better optimization…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-17 Yingrui Zhuang , Lin Cheng , Can Wan , Rui Xie , Ning Qi , Yue Chen

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

The need to rapidly solve PDEs in engineering design workflows has spurred the rise of neural surrogate models. In particular, neural operator models provide a discretization-invariant surrogate by retaining the infinite-dimensional,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

Consensus-based optimization (CBO) is a powerful and versatile zero-order multi-particle method designed to provably solve high-dimensional global optimization problems, including those that are genuinely nonconvex or nonsmooth. The method…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Massimo Fornasier , Hui Huang , Jona Klemenc , Greta Malaspina

We study an extension of contextual stochastic linear optimization (CSLO) that, in contrast to most of the existing literature, involves inequality constraints that depend on uncertain parameters predicted by a machine learning model. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Hyungki Im , Wyame Benslimane , Paul Grigas

For many applications of reinforcement learning it can be more convenient to specify both a reward function and constraints, rather than trying to design behavior through the reward function. For example, systems that physically interact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-31 Joshua Achiam , David Held , Aviv Tamar , Pieter Abbeel

Many real-world analytics problems involve two significant challenges: prediction and optimization. Due to the typically complex nature of each challenge, the standard paradigm is predict-then-optimize. By and large, machine learning tools…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Adam N. Elmachtoub , Paul Grigas

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye

The field of portfolio selection is an active research topic, which combines elements and methodologies from various fields, such as optimization, decision analysis, risk management, data science, forecasting, etc. The modeling and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-28 A. Georgantas

Optimizing objectives under constraints, where both the objectives and constraints are black box functions, is a common scenario in real-world applications such as scientific experimental design, design of medical therapies, and industrial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Fengxue Zhang , Zejie Zhu , Yuxin Chen

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

Safety-critical learning requires policies that improve performance without leaving the safe operating regime. We study constrained policy learning where model parameters must satisfy rollout-based safety constraints that can be evaluated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Shengfan Cao , Francesco Borrelli , Eunhyek Joa

Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Michele Caprio