Related papers: Coherent Distorted Beliefs
We present a model elucidating wishful thinking, which comprehensively incorporates both the costs and benefits associated with biased beliefs. Our findings reveal that wishful thinking behavior can be characterized as equivalent to…
In imperfect-information games, agents must make decisions based on partial knowledge of the game state. The Belief Stochastic Game model addresses this challenge by delegating state estimation to the game model itself. This allows agents…
Stemming from de Finetti's work on finitely additive coherent probabilities, the paradigm of coherence has been applied to many uncertainty calculi in order to remove structural restrictions on the domain of the assessment. Three possible…
In most social choice settings, the participating agents express their preferences over the different alternatives in the form of linear orderings. While this clearly simplifies preference elicitation, it inevitably leads to poor…
This paper relates comparative belief structures and a general view of belief management in the setting of deductively closed logical representations of accepted beliefs. We show that the range of compatibility between the classical…
The univariate distorted distribution were introduced in risk theory to represent changes (distortions) in the expected distributions of some risks. Later they were also applied to represent distributions of order statistics, coherent…
We provide and axiomatize a representation for preferences over lotteries that generalizes the expected utility model. Since the representation uses different utility functions to evaluate different lotteries, the preferences can be…
Belief dynamics are fundamental to human behavior and social coordination. Individuals rely on accurate beliefs to make decisions, and shared beliefs form the basis of successful cooperation. Traditional studies often examined beliefs in…
This paper studies manipulation of belief aggregation rules in the setting where the society first collects individual's probabilistic opinions and then solves a public portfolio choice problem with common utility based on the aggregate…
We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…
Belief systems are often treated as globally consistent sets of propositions or as scalar-valued probability distributions. Such representations tend to obscure the internal structure of belief, conflate external credibility with internal…
We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions,…
Distorted distributions were introduced in the context of actuarial science for several variety of insurance problems. In this paper we consider the quantile-based probabilistic mean value theorem given in Di Crescenzo et al. [4] and…
We study deliberative social choice, where voters engage in small-group discussions to output collective preferences that are then aggregated by a social choice rule. We introduce a simple deliberation-via-matching protocol. In this…
Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem…
In this paper, by proposing two new kinds of distributional uncertainty sets, we explore robustness of distortion risk measures against distributional uncertainty. To be precise, we first consider a distributional uncertainty set which is…
This paper presents a plausible reasoning system to illustrate some broad issues in knowledge representation: dualities between different reasoning forms, the difficulty of unifying complementary reasoning styles, and the approximate nature…
In the canonical examples underlying Shafer-Dempster theory, beliefs over the hypotheses of interest are derived from a probability model for a set of auxiliary hypotheses. Beliefs are derived via a compatibility relation connecting the…
We propose a belief-formation model where agents attempt to discriminate between two theories, and where the asymmetry in strength between confirming and disconfirming evidence tilts beliefs in favor of theories that generate strong (and…
We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief…