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In computational social choice, the distortion of a voting rule quantifies the degree to which the rule overcomes limited preference information to select a socially desirable outcome. This concept has been investigated extensively, but…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yannai A. Gonczarowski , Gregory Kehne , Ariel D. Procaccia , Ben Schiffer , Shirley Zhang

I defend an analog of probabilism that characterizes rationally coherent estimates for chances. Specifically, I demonstrate the following accuracy-dominance result for stochastic theories in the C*-algebraic framework: supposing an…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2018-09-11 Jeremy Steeger

Dempster/Shafer (D/S) theory has been advocated as a way of representing incompleteness of evidence in a system's knowledge base. Methods now exist for propagating beliefs through chains of inference. This paper discusses how rules with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Paul K. Black , Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Over time, there have hen refinements in the way that probability distributions are used for representing beliefs. Models which rely on single probability distributions depict a complete ordering among the propositions of interest, yet…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Paul Snow

Motivated by questions in lossy data compression and by theoretical considerations, we examine the problem of estimating the rate-distortion function of an unknown (not necessarily discrete-valued) source from empirical data. Our focus is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-01-18 M. T. Harrison , I. Kontoyiannis

The desirable gambles framework provides a foundational approach to imprecise probability theory but relies heavily on linear utility assumptions. This paper introduces function-coherent gambles, a generalization that accommodates…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-04-28 Gregory Wheeler

The human mind is capable of extraordinary achievements, yet it often appears to work against itself. It actively defends its cherished beliefs even in the face of contradictory evidence, conveniently interprets information to conform to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 David Hyland , Mahault Albarracin

While probability theory is normally applied to external environments, there has been some recent interest in probabilistic modeling of the outputs of computations that are too expensive to run. Since mathematical logic is a powerful tool…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-10-10 Scott Garrabrant , Benya Fallenstein , Abram Demski , Nate Soares

The problem of combining beliefs in the Dempster-Shafer belief theory has attracted considerable attention over the last two decades. The classical Dempster's Rule has often been criticised, and many alternative rules for belief combination…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Audun Josang

We define a new notion of conditional belief, which plays the same role for Dempster-Shafer belief functions as conditional probability does for probability functions. Our definition is different from the standard definition given by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Ronald Fagin , Joseph Y. Halpern

We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-04 Xue Dong He , Moris S. Strub , Thaleia Zariphopoulou

We study the problem of distributed cooperative learning, where a group of agents seeks to agree on a set of hypotheses that best describes a sequence of private observations. In the scenario where the set of hypotheses is large, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Mohammad Taha Toghani , César A. Uribe

We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-08 Muqiao Huang , Ruodu Wang

The preservation of stochastic orders by distortion functions has become a topic of increasing interest in the reliability analysis of coherent systems. The reason of this interest is that the reliability function of a coherent system with…

Applications · Statistics 2024-09-30 Antonio Arriaza , Miguel Angel Sordo

Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-05-04 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou , Mark Kirstein , Yonatan Berman

We introduce a new approach to modeling uncertainty based on plausibility measures. This approach is easily seen to generalize other approaches to modeling uncertainty, such as probability measures, belief functions, and possibility…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-31 Nir Friedman , Joseph Y. Halpern

Probability theory, epistemically interpreted, provides an excellent, if not the best available account of inductive reasoning. This is so because there are general and definite rules for the change of subjective probabilities through…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-10 Wolfgang Spohn

Scepticism towards childhood vaccines and genetically modified food has grown despite scientific evidence of their safety. Beliefs about scientific issues are difficult to change because they are entrenched within many related moral…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Jonas Dalege , Tamara van der Does

Conditioning is crucial in applied science when inference involving time series is involved. Belief calculus is an effective way of handling such inference in the presence of epistemic uncertainty -- unfortunately, different approaches to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-22 Fabio Cuzzolin

In various data settings, it is necessary to compare observations from disparate data sources. We assume the data is in the dissimilarity representation and investigate a joint embedding method that results in a commensurate representation…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-05 Sancar Adali , Carey E. Priebe