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Related papers: Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series Foreca…

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Counterfactual explanations emerge as a powerful approach in explainable AI, providing what-if scenarios that reveal how minimal changes to an input time series can alter the model's prediction. This work presents a survey of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Udo Schlegel , Thomas Seidl

Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Keita Kinjo

Forecasting multivariate time series data, which involves predicting future values of variables over time using historical data, has significant practical applications. Although deep learning-based models have shown promise in this field,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Zahra Fatemi , Minh Huynh , Elena Zheleva , Zamir Syed , Xiaojun Di

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Paolo Mancuso , Veronica Piccialli , Antonio M. Sudoso

We propose an interactive methodology for generating counterfactual explanations for univariate time series data in classification tasks by leveraging 2D projections and decision boundary maps to tackle interpretability challenges. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Udo Schlegel , Julius Rauscher , Daniel A. Keim

The popularity of deep learning methods in the time series domain boosts interest in interpretability studies, including counterfactual (CF) methods. CF methods identify minimal changes in instances to alter the model predictions. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Ziwen Kan , Shahbaz Rezaei , Xin Liu

In this work, we propose a model-agnostic instance-based post-hoc explainability method for time series classification. The proposed algorithm, namely Time-CF, leverages shapelets and TimeGAN to provide counterfactual explanations for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Qi Huang , Wei Chen , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

With the rising need of interpretable machine learning methods, there is a necessity for a rise in human effort to provide diverse explanations of the influencing factors of the model decisions. To improve the trust and transparency of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Peiyu Li , Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi , Shah Muhammad Hamdi

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Data-driven methods that detect anomalies in times series data are ubiquitous in practice, but they are in general unable to provide helpful explanations for the predictions they make. In this work we propose a model-agnostic algorithm that…

Time series forecasting (TSF) has long been a crucial task in both industry and daily life. Most classical statistical models may have certain limitations when applied to practical scenarios in fields such as energy, healthcare, traffic,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Xiangjie Kong , Zhenghao Chen , Weiyao Liu , Kaili Ning , Lechao Zhang , Syauqie Muhammad Marier , Yichen Liu , Yuhao Chen , Feng Xia

Deep learning models are widely used in traffic forecasting and have achieved state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. However, the black-box nature of those models makes the results difficult to interpret by users. This study aims to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Rushan Wang , Yanan Xin , Yatao Zhang , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Martin Raubal

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Luis P. Silvestrin , Leonardos Pantiskas , Mark Hoogendoorn

Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Time series forecasting has become increasingly critical in real-world scenarios, where future sequences are influenced not only by historical patterns but also by forthcoming events. In this context, forecasting must dynamically adapt to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Shuqi Gu , Yongxiang Zhao , Baoyu Jing , Kan Ren

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Biswajit Paria , Rajat Sen , Amr Ahmed , Abhimanyu Das

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Wentao Gao , Xiaojing Du , Wenjun Yu , Xiongren Chen , Yifan Guo , Feiyu Yang

Time series forecasting (TSF) is an essential branch of machine learning with various applications. Most methods for TSF focus on constructing different networks to extract better information and improve performance. However, practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Haoyu Xing , Hualong Yu , Qinghua Hu

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Jingquan Yan , Hao Wang
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