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This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-01-01 Mike Tsionas , Marwan Izzeldin , Lorenzo Trapani

We introduce a flexible parametric mixed effects model for correlated binary data, with parameters that can be directly interpreted as marginal odds ratios. This leads to a robust estimation equation with an optimal weighting matrix being…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Rui Zhang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-16 Thomas Nagler , Daniel Krüger , Aleksey Min

There exist many bivariate parametric copulas to model bivariate data with different dependence features. We propose a new bivariate parametric copula family that cannot only handle various dependence patterns that appear in the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-30 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

In recent years, probabilistic forecasting is an emerging topic, which is why there is a growing need of suitable methods for the evaluation of multivariate predictions. We analyze the sensitivity of the most common scoring rules,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-17 Florian Ziel , Kevin Berk

Key to effective generic, or "black-box", variational inference is the selection of an approximation to the target density that balances accuracy and speed. Copula models are promising options, but calibration of the approximation can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Michael Stanley Smith , Rubén Loaiza-Maya

Copulas are now frequently used to construct or estimate multivariate distributions because of their ability to take into account the multivariate dependence of the different variables while separately specifying marginal distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-02 Mohamad A. Khaled , Robert Kohn

This paper provides a closed form expression for the pairwise score vector for the multivariate ordered probit model. This result has several implications in likelihood-based inference. It is indeed used both to speed-up gradient based…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-30 Martina Bravo , Antonio Canale

The majority of model-based clustering techniques is based on multivariate Normal models and their variants. In this paper copulas are used for the construction of flexible families of models for clustering applications. The use of copulas…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis , Dimitris Karlis

Many types of bounded data defined on the unit interval arise naturally as ratios of the form $X/(X + Y)$. In the existing literature, the main statistical models proposed for this type of bounded data typically based on the assumption that…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Roberto Vila , Felipe Quintino , Marcelo Bourguignon

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-11 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Adrian O'Hagan

In this paper, we concentrate on new methodologies for copulas introduced and developed by Joe, Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, Daneshkhah and others on the new class of graphical models called vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-30 Alireza Daneshkhah , Golamali Parham , Omid Chatrabgoun , M. Jokar

We address an important yet challenging problem - modeling high-dimensional dependencies across multivariates such as financial indicators in heterogeneous markets. In reality, a market couples and influences others over time, and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-16 Jia Xu , Longbing Cao

This paper considers the problem of invoking auxiliary, unobservable variables to facilitate the structuring of causal tree models for a given set of continuous variables. Paralleling the treatment of bi-valued variables in [Pearl 1986], we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Lei Xu , Judea Pearl

The authors propose new additive models for binary outcomes, where the components are copula-based regression models (Noh et al, 2013), and designed such that the model may capture potentially complex interaction effects. The models do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Simon Boge Brant , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

Copulas, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear mixed models promote the analysis of grouped data where non-normal responses are correlated. Unfortunately, parameter estimation remains challenging in these three…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 Sarah S. Ji , Benjamin B. Chu , Hua Zhou , Kenneth Lange

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-08 Pavel Krupskii , Raphael Huser , Marc G. Genton

Factor models are a parsimonious way to explain the dependence of variables using several latent variables. In Gaussian 1-factor and structural factor models (such as bi-factor, oblique factor) and their factor copula counterparts, factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Xinyao Fan , Harry Joe

Bidirectional causal relationships arising from mutual interactions between variables are commonly observed within biomedical, econometrical, and social science contexts. When such relationships are further complicated by unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Yafang Deng , Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo

Continuous response variables often need to be transformed to meet regression modeling assumptions; however, finding the optimal transformation is challenging and results may vary with the choice of transformation. When a continuous…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Yuqi Tian , Bryan E. Shepherd , Chun Li , Donglin Zeng , Jonathan J. Schildcrout