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We develop an extension of posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) that is suited for a continuing agent-environment interface and integrates naturally into agent designs that scale to complex environments. The approach,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Wanqiao Xu , Shi Dong , Benjamin Van Roy

Most provably-efficient learning algorithms introduce optimism about poorly-understood states and actions to encourage exploration. We study an alternative approach for efficient exploration, posterior sampling for reinforcement learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-30 Ian Osband , Daniel Russo , Benjamin Van Roy

A Random Graph is a random object which take its values in the space of graphs. We take advantage of the expressibility of graphs in order to model the uncertainty about the existence of causal relationships within a given set of variables.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Mauricio Gonzalez-Soto , Ivan R. Feliciano-Avelino , L. Enrique Sucar , Hugo J. Escalante Balderas

Discovering a unique causal structure is difficult due to both inherent identifiability issues, and the consequences of finite data. As such, uncertainty over causal structures, such as those obtained from a Bayesian posterior, are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Anish Dhir , Matthew Ashman , James Requeima , Mark van der Wilk

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. As a model-based RL method, it has two key components: (1)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Shreya Sinha Roy , Richard G. Everitt , Christian P. Robert , Ritabrata Dutta

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

In preference-based reinforcement learning (RL), an agent interacts with the environment while receiving preferences instead of absolute feedback. While there is increasing research activity in preference-based RL, the design of formal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Ellen R. Novoseller , Yibing Wei , Yanan Sui , Yisong Yue , Joel W. Burdick

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Zihan Zhou , Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Murat Kocaoglu

Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Hongye Cao , Fan Feng , Tianpei Yang , Jing Huo , Yang Gao

Bayesian causal discovery benefits from prior information elicited from domain experts, and in heterogeneous domains any prior knowledge would be badly needed. However, so far prior elicitation approaches have assumed a single causal graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Zachris Björkman , Jorge Loría , Sophie Wharrie , Samuel Kaski

For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-02 Trent Kyono , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims at identifying high-level causal factors and their relationships from high-dimensional observations, e.g., images. While most CRL works focus on learning causal representations in a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Davide Talon , Phillip Lippe , Stuart James , Alessio Del Bue , Sara Magliacane

Since the advent of autonomous driving technology, it has experienced remarkable progress over the last decade. However, most existing research still struggles to address the challenges posed by environments where multiple vehicles have to…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Jing Wang , Yan Jin , Fei Ding , Chongfeng Wei

Balancing exploration and exploitation is crucial in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we study model-based posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) in continuous state-action spaces theoretically and empirically.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-18 Ying Fan , Yifei Ming

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is an effective heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Hamish Flynn , Joe Watson , Ingmar Posner , Jan Peters

Despite remarkable successes, deep reinforcement learning algorithms remain sample inefficient: they require an enormous amount of trial and error to find good policies. Model-based algorithms promise sample efficiency by building an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Remo Sasso , Michelangelo Conserva , Paulo Rauber

We propose a practical non-episodic PSRL algorithm that unlike recent state-of-the-art PSRL algorithms uses a deterministic, model-independent episode switching schedule. Our algorithm termed deterministic schedule PSRL (DS-PSRL) is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Georgios Theocharous , Zheng Wen , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Nikos Vlassis

Computational results demonstrate that posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) dramatically outperforms algorithms driven by optimism, such as UCRL2. We provide insight into the extent of this performance boost and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-14 Ian Osband , Benjamin Van Roy
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