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This work initiates a general study of learning and generalization without the i.i.d. assumption, starting from first principles. While the traditional approach to statistical learning theory typically relies on standard assumptions from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-21 Steve Hanneke

In this chapter, we review the class of causal effects based on incremental propensity scores interventions proposed by Kennedy [2019]. The aim of incremental propensity score interventions is to estimate the effect of increasing or…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Matteo Bonvini , Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-28 Victor Chernozhukov , Carlos Cinelli , Whitney Newey , Amit Sharma , Vasilis Syrgkanis

In this paper, we present a novel framework for data redundancy measurement based on probabilistic modeling of datasets, and a new criterion for redundancy detection that is resilient to noise. We also develop new methods for data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Chunxu Cao , Qiang Zhang

Off-policy evaluation of sequential decision policies from observational data is necessary in applications of batch reinforcement learning such as education and healthcare. In such settings, however, unobserved variables confound observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

Offline reinforcement learning, wherein one uses off-policy data logged by a fixed behavior policy to evaluate and learn new policies, is crucial in applications where experimentation is limited such as medicine. We study the estimation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Nathan Kallus , Masatoshi Uehara

The high sample complexity of reinforcement learning challenges its use in practice. A promising approach is to quickly adapt pre-trained policies to new environments. Existing methods for this policy adaptation problem typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Yuda Song , Aditi Mavalankar , Wen Sun , Sicun Gao

Intercurrent events, common in clinical trials and observational studies, affect the existence or interpretation of final outcomes. Principal stratification addresses this challenge by defining local average treatment effect estimands…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Jiaqi Tong , Brennan Kahan , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li

This paper proposes new estimators for the propensity score that aim to maximize the covariate distribution balance among different treatment groups. Heuristically, our proposed procedure attempts to estimate a propensity score model by…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-04-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Xiaojun Song , Qi Xu

This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

While data-driven decision-making is transforming modern operations, most large-scale data is of an observational nature, such as transactional records. These data pose unique challenges in a variety of operational problems posed as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-23 Dimitris Bertsimas , Nathan Kallus

Algorithmic fairness involves expressing notions such as equity, or reasonable treatment, as quantifiable measures that a machine learning algorithm can optimise. Most work in the literature to date has focused on classification problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-06 Daniel Steinberg , Alistair Reid , Simon O'Callaghan

Most existing fair classifiers rely on sensitive attributes to achieve fairness. However, for many scenarios, we cannot obtain sensitive attributes due to privacy and legal issues. The lack of sensitive attributes challenges many existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Huaisheng Zhu , Enyan Dai , Hui Liu , Suhang Wang

We study quantile-optimal policy learning where the goal is to find a policy whose reward distribution has the largest $\alpha$-quantile for some $\alpha \in (0, 1)$. We focus on the offline setting whose generating process involves…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Zhongren Chen , Siyu Chen , Zhengling Qi , Xiaohong Chen , Zhuoran Yang

In data-driven SHM, the signals recorded from systems in operation can be noisy and incomplete. Data corresponding to each of the operational, environmental, and damage states are rarely available a priori; furthermore, labelling to…

Stochastic policies (also known as relaxed controls) are widely used in continuous-time reinforcement learning algorithms. However, executing a stochastic policy and evaluating its performance in a continuous-time environment remain open…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Yanwei Jia , Du Ouyang , Yufei Zhang

We propose an approach for learning optimal tree-based prescription policies directly from data, combining methods for counterfactual estimation from the causal inference literature with recent advances in training globally-optimal decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-07 Maxime Amram , Jack Dunn , Ying Daisy Zhuo

Traditional reinforcement learning methods optimize agents without considering safety, potentially resulting in unintended consequences. In this paper, we propose an optimal actor-free policy that optimizes a risk-sensitive criterion based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Ruoqi Zhang , Jens Sjölund

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou