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Empirical research shows that individuals' responses to treatments vary along latent characteristics, such as innate ability or motivation. Therefore, a policymaker seeking to maximize welfare may consider designing policies based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-06 Giacomo Opocher

In reinforcement learning episodes, the rewards and punishments are often non-deterministic, and there are invariably stochastic elements governing the underlying situation. Such stochastic elements are often numerous and cannot be known in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-13 Nikki Lijing Kuang , Clement H. C. Leung , Vienne W. K. Sung

Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms tend to achieve higher sample efficiency than model-free methods. However, due to the inevitable errors of learned models, model-based methods struggle to achieve the same asymptotic performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-02 Qi Zhou , Houqiang Li , Jie Wang

We study the efficient off-policy evaluation of natural stochastic policies, which are defined in terms of deviations from the behavior policy. This is a departure from the literature on off-policy evaluation where most work consider the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Masatoshi Uehara

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Maximilian Autenrieth , David A. van Dyk , Roberto Trotta , David C. Stenning

Increasing users' positive interactions, such as purchases or clicks, is an important objective of recommender systems. Recommenders typically aim to select items that users will interact with. If the recommended items are purchased, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-24 Masahiro Sato , Sho Takemori , Janmajay Singh , Tomoko Ohkuma

We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Hannes Eriksson , Christos Dimitrakakis

We study the problem of choosing optimal policy rules in uncertain environments using models that may be incomplete and/or partially identified. We consider a policymaker who wishes to choose a policy to maximize a particular counterfactual…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-22 Thomas M. Russell

Recent methodological research in causal inference has focused on effects of stochastic interventions, which assign treatment randomly, often according to subject-specific covariates. In this work, we demonstrate that the usual notion of…

We consider the problem of finding a policy that maximizes an expected reward throughout the trajectory of an agent that interacts with an unknown environment. Frequently denoted Reinforcement Learning, this framework suffers from the need…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-30 Juan Cervino , Harshat Kumar , Alejandro Ribeiro

This article introduces an imitation learning method for learning maximum entropy policies that comply with constraints demonstrated by expert trajectories executing a task. The formulation of the method takes advantage of results…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 George Papadopoulos , George A. Vouros

Propensity score matching (PSM) is a pseudo-experimental method that uses statistical techniques to construct an artificial control group by matching each treated unit with one or more untreated units of similar characteristics. To date,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

In this paper, we develop new methods for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies, focusing on settings with more than two treatment levels under unconfoundedness given pre-treatment variables. We emphasize…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-11 Shu Yang , Guido W. Imbens , Zhanglin Cui , Douglas Faries , Zbigniew Kadziola

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

Off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning offers the chance of using observational data to improve future outcomes in domains such as healthcare and education, but safe deployment in high stakes settings requires ways of assessing its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-12 Omer Gottesman , Joseph Futoma , Yao Liu , Sonali Parbhoo , Leo Anthony Celi , Emma Brunskill , Finale Doshi-Velez

Clinical decision-making often involves selecting tests that are costly, invasive, or time-consuming, motivating individualized, sequential strategies for what to measure and when to stop ascertaining. We study the problem of learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Doudou Zhou , Yiran Zhang , Dian Jin , Yingye Zheng , Lu Tian , Tianxi Cai

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li
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