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Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly specified.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Kun Kuang , Ruoxuan Xiong , Peng Cui , Susan Athey , Bo Li

Unmeasured confounding bias threatens the validity of observational studies. While sensitivity analyses and study designs have been proposed to address this issue, they often overlook the growing availability of auxiliary data. Using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Jie Kate Hu , Dafne Zorzetto , Francesca Dominici

Federated Learning (FL) typically aggregates client model parameters using a weighting approach determined by sample proportions. However, this naive weighting method may lead to unfairness and degradation in model performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Mingwei Xu , Xiaofeng Cao , Ivor W. Tsang , James T. Kwok

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Qi Zhang , Harsh Parikh , Ashley Naimi , Razieh Nabi , Christopher Kim , Timothy Lash

Social scientists often study how a policy reform impacted a single targeted country. Increasingly, this is done with the synthetic control method (SCM). SCM models the country's counterfactual (non-reform or untreated) trajectory as a…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-15 Elias Tuomaala

Educational policymakers often lack data on student outcomes where standardized tests were not administered. Machine learning can predict unobserved outcomes in target populations using source population data. However, covariate…

Schapire's margin theory provides a theoretical explanation to the success of boosting-type methods and manifests that a good margin distribution (MD) of training samples is essential for generalization. However the statement that a MD is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-10 Guangxu Guo , Songcan Chen

Uncertainty quantification is one of the central challenges for machine learning in real-world applications. In reinforcement learning, an agent confronts two kinds of uncertainty, called epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Haiyan Wang , Chetan Gupta

The placement of Cloud-Native Network Functions across the Cloud-Continuum represents a core challenge in the orchestration of current 5G and future 6G networks. The process entails the implementation of interdependent computing tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Álvaro Vázquez Rodríguez , Manuel Fernández-Veiga , Carlos Giraldo-Rodríguez

Reliable uncertainty calibration is essential for safely deploying deep neural networks in high-stakes applications. Deep neural networks are known to exhibit systematic overconfidence, especially under distribution shifts. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Achim Hekler , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

This work proposes an unsupervised fusion framework based on deep convolutional transform learning. The great learning ability of convolutional filters for data analysis is well acknowledged. The success of convolutive features owes to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Pooja Gupta , Jyoti Maggu , Angshul Majumdar , Emilie Chouzenoux , Giovanni Chierchia

Control barrier functions (CBFs) have recently been introduced as a systematic tool to ensure safety by establishing set invariance. When combined with a control Lyapunov function (CLF), they form a safety-critical control mechanism.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-22 Mohammad Aali , Jun Liu

In prediction problems, it is common to model the data-generating process and then use a model-based procedure, such as a Bayesian predictive distribution, to quantify uncertainty about the next observation. However, if the posited model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Pei-Shien Wu , Ryan Martin

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Davide Valsecchi , Mauro Donegà , Rainer Wallny

We study the multichannel quickest change detection problem with bandit feedback and controlled sensing, in which an agent sequentially selects one of the data streams to observe at each time-step and aims to detect an unknown change as…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Yu-Han Huang , Argyrios Gerogiannis , Subhonmesh Bose , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

Gradient boosting is widely popular due to its flexibility and predictive accuracy. However, statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting remain challenging and under-explored. We propose a unified framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Haimo Fang , Kevin Tan , Giles Hooker

Instrumental variable models allow us to identify a causal function between covariates $X$ and a response $Y$, even in the presence of unobserved confounding. Most of the existing estimators assume that the error term in the response $Y$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-23 Sorawit Saengkyongam , Leonard Henckel , Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Domain adaptation is an important technique to alleviate performance degradation caused by domain shift, e.g., when training and test data come from different domains. Most existing deep adaptation methods focus on reducing domain shift by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Jun Wen , Nenggan Zheng , Junsong Yuan , Zhefeng Gong , Changyou Chen

Generalization in generative modeling is defined as the ability to learn an underlying distribution from a finite dataset and produce novel samples, with evaluation largely driven by held-out performance and perceived sample quality. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Jerome Garnier-Brun , Luca Biggio , Davide Beltrame , Marc Mézard , Luca Saglietti