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Accurate simulation of complex physical systems enables the development, testing, and certification of control strategies before they are deployed into the real systems. As simulators become more advanced, the analytical tractability of the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-05-27 Lucas Barcelos , Rafael Oliveira , Rafael Possas , Lionel Ott , Fabio Ramos

We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We study the problem of distribution shift generally arising in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation, where parts of simulation algorithms are replaced by data-driven surrogates. We first establish a mathematical framework to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Jiaxi Zhao , Qianxiao Li

Synthetic control methods can produce misleading counterfactual predictions when outcome series contain unit-specific stochastic trends, a common feature of nonstationary macroeconomic data. Existing remedies, such as pre-filtering or…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-21 Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

Missing data is a pervasive problem in data analyses, resulting in datasets that contain censored realizations of a target distribution. Many approaches to inference on the target distribution using censored observed data, rely on missing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved strong zero-shot forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining and retrieval-augmented prediction. However, our empirical analysis reveals a non-trivial limitation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jinjin Chi , Lei Feng , Lulu Zhang , Yongcheng Jing , Yiming Wang , Ximing Li , Jialie Shen , Leszek Rutkowski , Dacheng Tao

Communication is one of the key bottlenecks in the distributed training of large-scale machine learning models, and lossy compression of exchanged information, such as stochastic gradients or models, is one of the most effective instruments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Egor Shulgin , Peter Richtárik

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Graham Gibson

In this paper, we develop a novel adaptation-based approach to constrained control design under multiple state and input constraints. Specifically, we introduce a method for synthesizing any number of time-varying candidate control barrier…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Mitchell Black , Dimitra Panagou

A fundamental challenge in offline reinforcement learning is distributional shift. Scarce data or datasets dominated by out-of-distribution (OOD) areas exacerbate this issue. Our theoretical analysis and experiments show that the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Nan Qiao , Sheng Yue , Shuning Wang , Yongheng Deng , Ju Ren

This paper focuses on the problem of detecting and reacting to changes in the distribution of a sensorimotor controller's observables. The key idea is the design of switching policies that can take conformal quantiles as input, which we…

Model predictive control (MPC) schemes have a proven track record for delivering aggressive and robust performance in many challenging control tasks, coping with nonlinear system dynamics, constraints, and observational noise. Despite their…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Lucas Barcelos , Alexander Lambert , Rafael Oliveira , Paulo Borges , Byron Boots , Fabio Ramos

Modern distributed training relies heavily on communication compression to reduce the communication overhead. In this work, we study algorithms employing a popular class of contractive compressors in order to reduce communication overhead.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-13 Yuan Gao , Rustem Islamov , Sebastian Stich

Modern nonlinear control theory seeks to endow systems with properties of stability and safety, and have been deployed successfully in multiple domains. Despite this success, model uncertainty remains a significant challenge in synthesizing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-24 Andrew Taylor , Andrew Singletary , Yisong Yue , Aaron Ames

We propose Diffusion-Informed Model Predictive Control (D-I MPC), a generic framework for uncertainty-aware prediction and decision-making in partially observable stochastic systems by integrating diffusion-based time series forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Stelios Zarifis , Ioannis Kordonis , Petros Maragos

Federated clustering, an essential extension of centralized clustering for federated scenarios, enables multiple data-holding clients to collaboratively group data while keeping their data locally. In centralized scenarios, clustering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Jing Liu , Jie Yan , Zhong-Yuan Zhang

We consider safety-critical multi-agent systems with distributed control architectures and potentially varying network topologies. While learning-based distributed control enables scalability and high performance, a lack of formal safety…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-01 Jonas Ohnemus , Alexandre Didier , Ahmed Aboudonia , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Decentralized control schemes are increasingly favored in various domains that involve multi-agent systems due to the need for computational efficiency as well as general applicability to large-scale systems. However, in the absence of an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Yiwei Lyu , Wenhao Luo , John M. Dolan

The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Arsenii Kuznetsov , Pavel Shvechikov , Alexander Grishin , Dmitry Vetrov