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Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Data-driven correction of turbulence models offers a promising route for improving Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) predictions, but quantifying uncertainty in such corrections and ensuring generalization across flows remain key…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-28 Tyler Buchanan , Ali Eidi , Richard P. Dwight

Deep neural network (DNN) models have achieved state-of-the-art predictive accuracy in a wide range of supervised learning applications. However, accurately quantifying the uncertainty in DNN predictions remains a challenging task. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Daiwei Zhang , Tianci Liu , Jian Kang

The integration of Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) techniques with uncertainty quantification (UQ) represents a rapidly evolving frontier in computational science. This work advances Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Georgios Arampatzis , Stylianos Katsarakis , Charalambos Makridakis

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe

This paper introduces a novel hierarchical Bayesian model specifically designed to address challenges in Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) for time-dependent problems in nuclear Thermal Hydraulics (TH) systems. The unique…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-27 Chen Wang

Data-driven methods for improving turbulence modeling in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations have gained significant interest in the computational fluid dynamics community. Modern machine learning algorithms have opened up a…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-02-05 Nicholas Geneva , Nicholas Zabaras

Assessing the predictive uncertainty of deep neural networks is crucial for safety-related applications of deep learning. Although Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for estimating model uncertainty, the common approaches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Yookoon Park , David M. Blei

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

We present a novel statistical approach to incorporating uncertainty awareness in model-free distributional reinforcement learning involving quantile regression-based deep Q networks. The proposed algorithm, $\textit{Calibrated Evidential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Alex Christopher Stutts , Danilo Erricolo , Theja Tulabandhula , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Diagnostic testing provides a unique setting for studying and developing tools in classification theory. In such contexts, the concept of prevalence, i.e. the number of individuals with a given condition, is fundamental, both as an inherent…

We present a "module-based hybrid" Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework for general nonlinear multi-physics simulation. The proposed methodology, introduced in [\hyperlink{ref1}{1}], supports the independent development of each…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Xiao Chen , Charles Tong , Gianluca Iaccarino

Model uncertainty quantification involves measuring and evaluating the uncertainty linked to a model's predictions, helping assess their reliability and confidence. Noise injection is a technique used to enhance the robustness of neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Xueqiong Yuan , Jipeng Li , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

Deep Learning methods have been adopted in mobile networks, especially for network management automation where they provide means for advanced machine cognition. Deep learning methods utilize cutting-edge hardware and software tools,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Marton Kajo , Stephen S. Mwanje , Benedek Schultz , Georg Carle

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Laura A. Mansfield , Hannah M. Christensen

We consider the problem of modeling heterogeneous materials where micro-scale dynamics and interactions affect global behavior. In the presence of heterogeneities in material microstructure it is often impractical, if not impossible, to…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-11-03 Yiming Fan , Marta D'Elia , Yue Yu , Habib N. Najm , Stewart Silling

We present a deep learning framework for quantifying and propagating uncertainty in systems governed by non-linear differential equations using physics-informed neural networks. Specifically, we employ latent variable models to construct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-26 Yibo Yang , Paris Perdikaris

In modern process industries, data-driven models are important tools for real-time monitoring when key performance indicators are difficult to measure directly. While accurate predictions are essential, reliable uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Yiran Ma , Jerome Le Ny , Zhichao Chen , Zhihuan Song

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive fluency, but often produce critical errors known as "hallucinations". Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are a promising tool for coping with this fundamental shortcoming. Yet, existing…