Related papers: Reduced seismic activity after mega earthquakes
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
Whether aftershocks originate directly from the mainshock and surrounding stress environment or from afterslip dynamics is crucial to the understanding of the nature of aftershocks. We build on a classical description of the fault and…
The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…
Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…
We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…
The empirical Bath's law is derived from the magnitude-difference statistical distribution of earthquake pairs. The pair distribution related to earthquake correlations is presented. The single-event distribution of dynamically correlated…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum, that depends on the mainshock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
We study analytically and by numerical simulations the statistics of the aftershocks generated after large avalanches in models of interface depinning that include viscoelastic relaxation effects. We find in all the analyzed cases that the…
Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…
In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
Megathrusts host Earth's largest earthquakes. Understanding the physical conditions controlling their rupture dynamics is critical for assessing seismic and tsunami hazards. These earthquakes often display complex rupture dynamics,…
The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
We consider an epidemic-type aftershock model (ETAS($F$)) for a large class of distributions $F$ determining the number of direct aftershocks. This class includes Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial distributions and many other. Assuming…