Related papers: Martingale transforms of bounded random variables …
We introduce a new class of estimators for the linear response of steady states of stochastic dynamics. We generalize the likelihood ratio approach and formulate the linear response as a product of two martingales, hence the name…
We discuss prospects for Monte Carlo event generators incorporating the dynamics of transverse momentum dependent (TMD) parton distribution functions. We illustrate TMD evolution in the parton branching formalism, and present Monte Carlo…
We consider the large deviations associated with the empirical mean of independent and identically distributed random variables under a subexponential moment condition. We show that non-trivial deviations are observable at a subexponential…
We study Martin-L\"{o}f random (ML-random) points on computable probability measures on sample and parameter spaces (Bayes models). We consider variants of conditional randomness defined by ML-randomness on Bayes models and those of…
We extend some sharp inequalities for martingale-differences to general multiplicative systems of random variables. The key ingredient in the proofs is a technique reducing the general case to the case of Rademacher random variables without…
We show that one can perform causal inference in a natural way for continuous-time scenarios using tools from stochastic analysis. This provides new alternatives to the positivity condition for inverse probability weighting. The probability…
Marginal structural models were introduced in order to provide estimates of causal effects from interventions based on observational studies in epidemiological research. The key point is that this can be understood in terms of Girsanov's…
We consider additive functionals of stationary Markov processes and show that under Kipnis-Varadhan type conditions they converge in rough path topology to a Stratonovich Brownian motion, with a correction to the Levy area that can be…
We consider the problem of finding a real valued martingale fitting specified marginal distributions. For this to be possible, the marginals must be increasing in the convex order and have constant mean. We show that, under the extra…
Fractional moments have been investigated by many authors to represent the density of univariate and bivariate random variables in different contexts. Fractional moments are indeed important when the density of the random variable has…
The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes, especially stochastic integrals and differential equations. In this paper, general central limit theorems and functional…
We provide a new extension of Breiman's Theorem on computing tail probabilities of a product of random variables to a multivariate setting. In particular, we give a complete characterization of regular variation on cones in $[0,\infty)^d$…
Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…
The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…
Let $\alpha$ be a Steinhaus or a Rademacher random multiplicative function. For a wide class of multiplicative functions $f$ we show that the sum $\sum_{n \le x}\alpha(n) f(n)$, normalised to have mean square $1$, has a non-Gaussian…
We develop a stochastic calculus that makes it easy to capture a variety of predictable transformations of semimartingales such as changes of variables, stochastic integrals, and their compositions. The framework offers a unified treatment…
We give a general method to obtain from the integral restrictions of functions sharp pointwise and uniform estimates of these functions. This scheme is illustrated by the examples for Fock\,--\,Bargmann spaces of entire functions of several…
We study a natural Markov chain on $\{0,1,\cdots,n\}$ with eigenvectors the Hahn polynomials. This explicit diagonalization makes it possible to get sharp rates of convergence to stationarity. The process, the Burnside process, is a special…
We generalise the martingale-coboundary representation of discrete time stochastic processes to the non-stationary case and to random variables in Orlicz spaces. Related limit theorems (CLT, invariance principle, log log law, probabilities…
We consider a set of one-dimensional transformations of Gaussian random functions. Under natural assumptions we obtain a connection between $L_2$-small ball asymptotics of the transformed function and of the original one. Also the explicit…