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Many practical tasks involve sampling sequentially without replacement (WoR) from a finite population of size $N$, in an attempt to estimate some parameter $\theta^\star$. Accurately quantifying uncertainty throughout this process is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-11 Ian Waudby-Smith , Aaditya Ramdas

We develop a new extreme value theory for repeated cross-sectional and panel data to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs) for conditional extremal quantiles from a fixed number $k$ of nearest-neighbor tail observations.…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-21 Yuya Sasaki , Yulong Wang

Performance uncertainty quantification is essential for reliable validation and eventual clinical translation of medical imaging artificial intelligence (AI). Confidence intervals (CIs) play a central role in this process by indicating how…

We show that the unified method recently proposed by Feldman and Cousins to put confidence intervals on bounded parameters cannot avoid the possibility of getting null results. A modified bayesian approach is also proposed (although not…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 J. Bouchez

We give a classical confidence belt construction which unifies the treatment of upper confidence limits for null results and two-sided confidence intervals for non-null results. The unified treatment solves a problem (apparently not…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-11-26 Gary J. Feldman , Robert D. Cousins

We contribute to bridging the gap between large- and finite-sample inference by studying confidence sets (CSs) that are both non-asymptotically valid and asymptotically exact uniformly (NAVAE) over semi-parametric statistical models. NAVAE…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Alexis Derumigny , Lucas Girard , Yannick Guyonvarch

In this paper, we study statistical inference for the Wasserstein distance, which has attracted much attention and has been applied to various machine learning tasks. Several studies have been proposed in the literature, but almost all of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-21 Vo Nguyen Le Duy , Ichiro Takeuchi

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Small sample sizes in clinical studies arises from factors such as reduced costs, limited subject availability, and the rarity of studied conditions. This creates challenges for accurately calculating confidence intervals (CIs) using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mulan Wu , Mengyu Xu , Dongyun Kim

The inferential model (IM) framework offers alternatives to the familiar probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. Allowing this uncertainty quantification to be imprecise makes it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Ryan Martin , Jonathan P. Williams

In fixed-confidence best arm identification (BAI), the objective is to quickly identify the optimal option while controlling the probability of error below a desired threshold. Despite the plethora of BAI algorithms, existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Brian M. Cho , Nathan Kallus

Nonparametric estimators, such as the augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) estimator, have become increasingly popular in causal inference. Numerous nonparametric estimators have been proposed, but they are all asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Hongxiang Qiu

We propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals and statistical tests for single or low-dimensional components of a large parameter vector in a high-dimensional model. It can be easily adjusted for multiplicity taking…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-24 Sara van de Geer , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov , Ruben Dezeure

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-04-06 Fyodor V. Tkachov

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Kenta Takatsu

Statistical inference for high dimensional parameters (HDPs) can be based on their intrinsic correlation; that is, parameters that are close spatially or temporally tend to have more similar values. This is why nonlinear mixed-effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-30 Nan Zheng , Noel Cadigan

For estimating a lower bounded parametric function in the framework of Marchand and Strawderman (2006), we provide through a unified approach a class of Bayesian confidence intervals with credibility $1-\alpha$ and frequentist coverage…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-21 Eric Marchand , William E. Strawderman

Empirical Bayes methods can improve inference on unobservable individual effects by borrowing strength across units. This paper proposes nonparametric empirical Bayes confidence intervals (NP-EBCIs) for unobservable individual effects in a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Zhen Xie

This paper is devoted to the estimators of the mean that provide strong non-asymptotic guarantees under minimal assumptions on the underlying distribution. The main ideas behind proposed techniques are based on bridging the notions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-07 Stanislav Minsker

Motivated by the growing popularity of variants of the Wasserstein distance in statistics and machine learning, we study statistical inference for the Sliced Wasserstein distance--an easily computable variant of the Wasserstein distance.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Tudor Manole , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman