Related papers: A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspe…

A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…

Statistical physics has proven to be a very fruitful framework to describe phenomena outside the realm of traditional physics. The last years have witnessed the attempt by physicists to study collective phenomena emerging from the…

The extremal characteristics of random structures, including trees, graphs, and networks, are discussed. A statistical physics approach is employed in which extremal properties are obtained through suitably defined rate equations. A variety…

In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…

We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…

In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the statistics of record-breaking events in stochastic processes. Along with that, many new and interesting applications of the theory of records were discovered and explored. The record…

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

For spatiotemporal chaos described by partial differential equations, there are generally locations where the dynamical variable achieves its local extremum or where the time partial derivative of the variable vanishes instantaneously. To a…

In this paper, we analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence…

This paper explores the connection between dynamical system properties and statistical physics of ensembles of such systems. Simple models are used to give novel phase transitions; particularly for finite N particle systems with many…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…

Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…

Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…

Examples of cyclic (periodic) behavior in geophysical data abound. In many cases the primary period is known, such as in daily measurements of rain, temperature, and sea level. However, many time series of measurements contain cycles of…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme…

It is known that statistical model selection as well as identification of dynamical equations from available data are both very challenging tasks. Physical systems behave according to their underlying dynamical equations which, in turn, can…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…