Related papers: Epidemic Forecast Follies
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
Classical compartmental models of epidemiology rely on well-mixed, local interaction approximations that fail to capture the heavy-tailed burst dynamics and long-range spatial correlations observed in real-world outbreaks. While fractional…
We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…
Ensemble forecasts have become a cornerstone of large-scale disease response, underpinning decision making at agencies such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Their growing use reflects the goal of combining…
This work describes a simple agent model for the spread of an epidemic outburst, with special emphasis on mobility and geographical considerations, which we characterize via statistical mechanics and numerical simulations. As the mobility…
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point of all past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…
Empirical records of epidemics reveal that fluctuations are important factors for the spread and prevalence of infectious diseases. The exact manner in which fluctuations affect spreading dynamics remains poorly known. Recent analytical and…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…
Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…