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Rare trajectories of stochastic systems are important to understand -- because of their potential impact. However, their properties are by definition difficult to sample directly. Population dynamics provides a numerical tool allowing their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-03 Esteban Guevara Hidalgo , Takahiro Nemoto , Vivien Lecomte

The climate system is a complex, chaotic system with many degrees of freedom and variability on a vast range of temporal and spatial scales. Attaining a deeper level of understanding of its dynamical processes is a scientific challenge of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-28 Vera Melinda Galfi , Valerio Lucarini , Francesco Ragone , Jeroen Wouters

Affine point processes are a class of simple point processes with self- and mutually-exciting properties, and they have found useful applications in several areas. In this paper, we obtain large-time asymptotic expansions in large…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-26 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

The aim of this paper is to investigate the large deviations for a class of slow-fast mean-field diffusions, which extends some existing results to the case where the laws of fast process are also involved in the slow component. Due to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Wei Hong , Wei Liu , Shiyuan Yang

How condensed-matter simulations depend on the number of molecules being simulated ($N$) is sometimes itself a valuable piece of information. Liquid crystals provide a case in point. Light scattering and $2d$-IR experiments on…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-12-20 Eleftherios Mainas , Richard M. Stratt

Large and moderate deviation probabilities play an important role in many applied areas, such as insurance and risk analysis. This paper studies the exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics in non-logarithmic form for linear processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-07 Magda Peligrad , Hailin Sang , Yunda Zhong , Wei Biao Wu

Consider the normalized partial sums of a real-valued function $F$ of a Markov chain, \[\phi_n:=n^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}F(\Phi(k)),\qquad n\ge1.\] The chain $\{\Phi(k):k\ge0\}$ takes values in a general state space $\mathsf {X}$, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Sean P. Meyn

In a recent study, the finite-time ($t$) and -population size ($N_c$) scalings in the evaluation of a large deviation function (LDF) estimator were analyzed by means of the cloning algorithm. These scalings provide valuable information…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-08-30 Esteban Guevara Hidalgo

By extending the methods in Peligrad et al. (2014a, b), we establish exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics for linear random fields with independent innovations. These results are useful for studying nonparametric regression with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Hailin Sang , Yimin Xiao

We consider a general system of n noninteracting identical particles which evolve under a given dynamical law and whose initial microstates are a priori independent. The time evolution of the n-particle average of a bounded function on the…

chao-dyn · Physics 2021-04-28 Brian R. La Cour , William C. Schieve

We consider the short time behaviour of stochastic systems affected by a stochastic volatility evolving at a faster time scale. We study the asymptotics of a logarithmic functional of the process by methods of the theory of homogenisation…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-05-14 Martino Bardi , Annalisa Cesaroni , Daria Ghilli

Using the weak convergence approach, we prove the large deviation principle (LDP) for solutions to quasilinear stochastic evolution equations with small Gaussian noise in the critical variational setting, a recently developed general…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-23 Esmée Theewis , Mark Veraar

Latent factor models are widely used to measure unobserved latent traits in social and behavioral sciences, including psychology, education, and marketing. When used in a confirmatory manner, design information is incorporated, yielding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Yunxiao Chen , Xiaoou Li , Siliang Zhang

For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-12-06 Peter Werner , Alexander K. Hartmann

Large deviation theory (LDT) provides a mathematical framework to quantify the probabilities of rare events in stochastic systems. In this study, we applied LDT to model a chemical reaction system and demonstrated that the fluctuation…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-01-22 Tatsuaki Tsuruyama

We study the large deviation function for the empirical measure of diffusing particles at one fixed position. We find that the large deviation function exhibits anomalous system size dependence in systems that satisfy the following…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-01-20 Naoto Shiraishi

The state of an open quantum system undergoing an adiabatic process evolves by following the instantaneous stationary state of its time-dependent generator. This observation allows one to characterize, for a generic adiabatic evolution, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-23 Paulo J. Paulino , Igor Lesanovsky , Federico Carollo

This paper deals with the large deviations behavior of a stochastic process called thinned Levy process. This process appeared recently as a stochastic-process limit in the context of critical inhomogeneous random graphs. The process has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-08 Elie Aidekon , Remco van der Hofstad , Sandra Kliem , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden

Regularized system identification is the major advance in system identification in the last decade. Although many promising results have been achieved, it is far from complete and there are still many key problems to be solved. One of them…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-05 Yue Ju , Biqiang Mu , Lennart Ljung , Tianshi Chen

We study the convergence to equilibrium of an underdamped Langevin equation that is controlled by a linear feedback force. Specifically, we are interested in sampling the possibly multimodal invariant probability distribution of a Langevin…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-12 Tobias Breiten , Carsten Hartmann , Lara Neureither , Upanshu Sharma