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We consider exponential large deviations estimates for unbounded observables on uniformly expanding dynamical systems. We show that uniform expansion does not imply the existence of a rate function for unbounded observables no matter the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-04-05 Andrew Torok , Matthew Nicol

We propose a method for the accurate estimation of rare event or failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate numerical models in high dimensions. The proposed approach combines ideas from large deviation theory and adaptive importance…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-28 Shanyin Tong , Georg Stadler

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Attilio L. Stella , Fulvio Baldovin

Local convergence techniques have become a key methodology to study sparse random graphs. However, convergence of many random graph properties does not directly follow from local convergence. A notable, and important, such random graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Remco van der Hofstad

Large deviation theory and instanton calculus for stochastic systems are widely used to gain insight into the evolution and probability of rare events. At its core lies the realization that rare events are, under the right circumstances,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mnerh Alqahtani , Tobias Grafke

We consider a parameter estimation problem for one dimensional stochastic heat equations, when data is sampled discretely in time or spatial component. We prove that, the real valued parameter next to the Laplacian (the drift), and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-17 Igor Cialenco , Yicong Huang

We study an inhomogeneous sparse random graph on [N] = {1, . . . , N } as introduced in a seminal paper by Bollobas, Janson and Riordan (2007): vertices have a type (here in a compact metric space S), and edges between different vertices…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Luisa Andreis , Wolfgang König , Heide Langhammer , Robert I. A. Patterson

The behavior of many critical phenomena at large distances is expected to be invariant under the full conformal group, rather than only isometries and scale transformations. When studying critical phenomena, approximations are often…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-03 Santiago Cabrera , Gonzalo De Polsi , Nicolás Wschebor

The divergence of the thermal conductivity in the thermodynamic limit is thoroughly investigated. The divergence law is consistently determined with two different numerical approaches based on equilibrium and non-equilibrium simulations. A…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Stefano Lepri , Roberto Livi , Antonio Politi

The classical random matrix theory is mostly focused on asymptotic spectral properties of random matrices as their dimensions grow to infinity. At the same time many recent applications from convex geometry to functional analysis to…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Mark Rudelson , Roman Vershynin

We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the forward and backward recurrence time processes associated with a classical renewal process with arbitrary waiting-time distribution. The Donsker-Varadhan theory cannot be…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-09-22 Raphael Lefevere , Mauro Mariani , Lorenzo Zambotti

In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Henrik Hult , Gennady Samorodnitsky

In the course of Darwinian evolution of a population, punctualism is an important phenomenon whereby long periods of genetic stasis alternate with short periods of rapid evolutionary change. This paper provides a mathematical interpretation…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-17 Nicolas Champagnat

We consider the quasi-deterministic behavior of systems with a large number, $n$, of deterministically interacting constituents. This work extends the results of a previous paper [J. Stat. Phys. 99:1225-1249 (2000)] to include vector-valued…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-04-28 Brian R. La Cour , William C. Schieve

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Betina Berghaus , Axel Bücher

Statistical divergences are important tools in data analysis, information theory, and statistical physics, and there exist well known inequalities on their bounds. However, in many circumstances involving temporal evolution, one needs…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-03-25 Jan Karbowski

The large deviation principle is established for the Poisson--Dirichlet distribution when the parameter $\theta$ approaches infinity. The result is then used to study the asymptotic behavior of the homozygosity and the Poisson--Dirichlet…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Donald A. Dawson , Shui Feng

The paper that is commented by Touchette contains a computational study which opens the door to a desirable generalization of the standard large deviation theory (applicable to a set of $N$ nearly independent random variables) to systems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-12 Guiomar Ruiz , Constantino Tsallis

In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-07 Gyorgy Steinbrecher , Xavier Garbet , Boris Weyssow
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