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The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

We study in this paper the problem of least absolute deviation (LAD) regression for high-dimensional heavy-tailed time series which have finite $\alpha$-th moment with $\alpha \in (1,2]$. To handle the heavy-tailed dependent data, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-11 Yu Wang , Guodong Li , Zhijie Xiao , Lihu Xu , Wenyang Zhang

Offline or batch reinforcement learning seeks to learn a near-optimal policy using history data without active exploration of the environment. To counter the insufficient coverage and sample scarcity of many offline datasets, the principle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Laixi Shi , Gen Li , Yuting Wei , Yuxin Chen , Yuejie Chi

We introduce and study a variational framework for the analysis of empirical risk based inference for dynamical systems and ergodic processes. The analysis applies to a two-stage estimation procedure in which (i) the trajectory of an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-01-24 Kevin McGoff , Andrew B. Nobel

Motivated by the poor performance of cross-validation in settings where data are scarce, we propose a novel estimator of the out-of-sample performance of a policy in data-driven optimization.Our approach exploits the optimization problem's…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Vishal Gupta , Michael Huang , Paat Rusmevichientong

In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk. However, in the large-scale setting, minimization of the empirical risk may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 Murat A. Erdogdu , Mohsen Bayati , Lee H. Dicker

Although there exist plentiful theories of empirical risk minimization (ERM) for supervised learning, current theoretical understandings of ERM for a related problem---stochastic convex optimization (SCO), are limited. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-08 Lijun Zhang , Tianbao Yang , Rong Jin

Unbiased and consistent variance estimators generally do not exist for design-based treatment effect estimators because experimenters never observe more than one potential outcome for any unit. The problem is exacerbated by interference and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-04 Christopher Harshaw , Joel A. Middleton , Fredrik Sävje

For basic machine learning problems, expected error is used to evaluate model performance. Since the distribution of data is usually unknown, we can make simple hypothesis that the data are sampled independently and identically distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Xuli Shen , Qing Xu , Xiangyang Xue

Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Victor Veitch , Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou , David M. Blei , Peter Orbanz

Randomized controlled trials generate experimental variation that can credibly identify causal effects, but often suffer from limited scale, while observational datasets are large, but often violate desired identification assumptions. To…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-27 George Z. Gui

We consider the random design regression model with square loss. We propose a method that aggregates empirical minimizers (ERM) over appropriately chosen random subsets and reduces to ERM in the extreme case, and we establish sharp oracle…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan , Alexandre B. Tsybakov

Catoni proposed a robust M-estimator and gave the deviation inequality for one fixed test function. The present paper is devoted to the uniform concentration inequality for a family of test functions. As an application, we consider…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Pengtao Li , Hanchao Wang

Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Dohyun Ahn , Taeho Kim

We generalize the { ${\rm M}$-estimator} put forward by Catoni in his seminal paper [C12] to the case in which samples can have finite $\alpha$-th moment with $\alpha \in (1,2)$ rather than finite variance, our approach is by slightly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-13 Peng Chen , Xinghu Jin , Xiang Li , Lihu Xu

Typical contextual bandit algorithms assume that the rewards at each round lie in some fixed range $[0, R]$, and their regret scales polynomially with this reward range $R$. However, many practical scenarios naturally involve heavy-tailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-05 Chenlu Ye , Yujia Jin , Alekh Agarwal , Tong Zhang

We study the problem of offline policy optimization in stochastic contextual bandit problems, where the goal is to learn a near-optimal policy based on a dataset of decision data collected by a suboptimal behavior policy. Rather than making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Germano Gabbianelli , Gergely Neu , Matteo Papini

This paper proposes a versatile covariate adjustment method that directly incorporates covariate balance in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The new empirical entropy balancing method reweights the standard local polynomial RD…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-29 Jun Ma , Zhengfei Yu

Empirical risk minimization is a standard principle for choosing algorithms in learning theory. In this paper we study the properties of empirical risk minimization for time series. The analysis is carried out in a general framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-12 Christian Brownlees , Jordi Llorens-Terrazas

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan