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We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Olivier Catoni

In this work, we study the weighted empirical risk minimization (weighted ERM) schema, in which an additional data-dependent weight function is incorporated when the empirical risk function is being minimized. We show that under a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Yikai Zhang , Jiahe Lin , Fengpei Li , Songzhu Zheng , Anant Raj , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Nisrine Madhar , Juliette Legrand , Maud Thomas

We study the problem of empirical minimization for variance-type functionals over functional classes. Sharp non-asymptotic bounds for the excess variance are derived under mild conditions. In particular, it is shown that under some…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-03 D. Belomestny , L. Iosipoi , Q. Paris , N. Zhivotovskiy

This paper studies performative risk minimization, a formulation of stochastic optimization under decision-dependent distributions. We consider the general case where the performative risk can be non-convex, for which we develop efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Sungwoo Park , Junyeop Kwon , Byeongnoh Kim , Suhyun Chae , Jeeyong Lee , Dabeen Lee

We present novel minibatch stochastic optimization methods for empirical risk minimization problems, the methods efficiently leverage variance reduced first-order and sub-sampled higher-order information to accelerate the convergence speed.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Jialei Wang , Tong Zhang

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

Empirical risk minimization stands behind most optimization in supervised machine learning. Under this scheme, labeled data is used to approximate an expected cost (risk), and a learning algorithm updates model-defining parameters in search…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 James Schmidt

In this paper, we initiate a systematic investigation of differentially private algorithms for convex empirical risk minimization. Various instantiations of this problem have been studied before. We provide new algorithms and matching lower…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-10-21 Raef Bassily , Adam Smith , Abhradeep Thakurta

This paper develops a Catoni-type joint (tuning-free) estimation framework for parametric models with heavy-tailed noise, in which the target parameter and the unknown noise variance are estimated simultaneously through a system of two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Xiang Li , Jun S. Liu , Qiang Sun , Lihu Xu

We develop a novel procedure for estimating the optimizer of general convex stochastic optimization problems of the form $\min_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \mathbb{E}[F(x,\xi)]$, when the given data is a finite independent sample selected according to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-26 Daniel Bartl , Shahar Mendelson

We study an optimization-based approach to construct statistically accurate confidence intervals for simulation performance measures under nonparametric input uncertainty. This approach computes confidence bounds from simulation runs driven…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Nikos Karampatziakis , John Langford , Paul Mineiro

In this paper, we provide an extension of confidence sequences for settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist or is infinite. Confidence sequences furnish confidence intervals that are valid at arbitrary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Sujay Bhatt , Guanhua Fang , Ping Li , Gennady Samorodnitsky

In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Lijun Zhang , Zhi-Hua Zhou

This paper introduces a flexible regularization approach that reduces point estimation risk of group means stemming from e.g. categorical regressors, (quasi-)experimental data or panel data models. The loss function is penalized by adding…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-08 Phillip Heiler , Jana Mareckova

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-28 Léo R. Belzile , Anthony C. Davison

This work presents a new algorithm for empirical risk minimization. The algorithm bridges the gap between first- and second-order methods by computing a search direction that uses a second-order-type update in one subspace, coupled with a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Majid Jahani , Mohammadreza Nazari , Rachael Tappenden , Albert S. Berahas , Martin Takáč

In reinforcement learning, classic on-policy evaluation methods often suffer from high variance and require massive online data to attain the desired accuracy. Previous studies attempt to reduce evaluation variance by searching for or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Claire Chen , Shuze Daniel Liu , Shangtong Zhang

The minimax risk is often considered as a gold standard against which we can compare specific statistical procedures. Nevertheless, as has been observed recently in robust and heavy-tailed estimation problems, the inherent reduction of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-08 Tianyi Ma , Kabir A. Verchand , Richard J. Samworth