Related papers: Precise Deviations for discrete marked Hawkes proc…

Foundational marked temporal point process (MTPP) models, such as the Hawkes process, often use inexpressive model families in order to offer interpretable parameterizations of event data. On the other hand, neural MTPPs models forego this…

We present a unified analysis for a family of variational time discretization methods, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and continuous Galerkin-Petrov methods, applied to non-stiff initial value problems. Besides the…

The optimal control of a mechanical system is of crucial importance in many realms. Typical examples are the determination of a time-minimal path in vehicle dynamics, a minimal energy trajectory in space mission design, or optimal motion…

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…

We consider the system of $N$ points on the segment of the real line with the nearest-neighbor Coulomb repulsive interaction and external force $F$. For the fixed points of such systems (fixed configurations) we study the asymptotics (in…

In this paper we derive the moderate deviation principle for stationary sequences of bounded random variables under martingale-type conditions. Applications to functions of $\phi$-mixing sequences, contracting Markov chains, expanding maps…

In this paper we introduce two new Hawkes processes, namely, compound and regime-switching compound Hawkes processes, to model the price processes in limit order books. We prove Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems…

We analyze asymptotically a differential-difference equation, that arises in a Markov-modulated fluid model. Here there are N identical sources that turn "on" and "off", and when "on" they generate fluid at unit rate into a buffer, which…

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

In this paper, we study a discrete-time analogue of a Hawkes process, modelled as a Poisson autoregressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. The model is characterized to allow these parameters to take negative…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the forward and backward recurrence time processes associated with a classical renewal process with arbitrary waiting-time distribution. The Donsker-Varadhan theory cannot be…

In this paper, we establish the asymptotic behavior of {\it supercritical} nearly unstable Hawkes processes with a power law kernel. We find that, the Hawkes process in our context admits a similar equation to that in \cite{MR3563196} for…

We continue the investigation of the spectral theory and exponential asymptotics of Markov processes, following Kontoyiannis and Meyn (2003). We introduce a new family of nonlinear Lyapunov drift criteria, characterizing distinct subclasses…

We consider the moderate deviations behaviors for two (co-) volatility estima-tors: generalised bipower variation, Hayashi-Yoshida estimator. The results are obtained by using a new result about the moderate deviations principle for…

The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…

We consider Markov chains which are polynomially mixing, in a weak sense expressed in terms of the space of functions on which the mixing speed is controlled. In this context, we prove polynomial large and moderate deviations inequalities.…

Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…

In this paper, we study the discrete-time approximation of multidimensional reflected BSDEs of the type of those presented by Hu and Tang [Probab. Theory Related Fields 147 (2010) 89-121] and generalized by Hamad\`ene and Zhang [Stochastic…

We consider a collection of fully coupled weakly interacting diffusion processes moving in a two-scale environment. We study the moderate deviations principle of the empirical distribution of the particles' positions in the combined limit…