Related papers: Precise Deviations for discrete marked Hawkes proc…
We prove large and moderate deviation principles for the distribution of an empirical mean conditioned by the value of the sum of discrete i.i.d. random variables. Some applications for combinatoric problems are discussed.
We consider a two-dimensional Hamiltonian system perturbed by a small diffusion term, whose coefficient is state-dependent and non-degenerate. As a result, the process consists of the fast motion along the level curves and slow motion…
This paper is devoted to proving the small noise asymptotic behaviour, particularly large deviation principle, for multi-scale stochastic dynamical systems with fully local monotone coefficients driven by multiplicative noise. The main…
The paper is devoted to the study of a new class of optimal control problems for nonsmooth dynamical systems governed by nonconvex discontinuous differential inclusions of the sweeping type with involving variable time into optimization. We…
We use a weak Gibbs property and a weak form of specification to derive level-2 large deviations principles for symbolic systems equipped with a large class of reference measures. This has applications to a broad class of symbolic systems,…
We study large time behavior of critical marked Hawkes processes and related branching particle systems. In case of marked Hawkes processes we assume that the kernel function has multiplicative form and the marks corresponding to the events…
For Markov processes evolving on multiple time-scales a combination of large component scalings and averaging of rapid fluctuations can lead to useful limits for model approximation. A general approach to proving a law of large numbers to a…
We study the large deviation estimates for the short time asymptotic behavior of a strongly degenerate diffusion process. Assuming a nilpotent structure of the Lie algebra generated by the driving vector fields, we obtain a graded large…
We introduce a numerical procedure to evaluate directly the probabilities of large deviations of physical quantities, such as current or density, that are local in time. The large-deviation functions are given in terms of the typical…
This article is concerned with moderate deviation principles of a general class of mean eld type interacting particle models. We discuss functional moderate deviations of the occupation measures for both the strong -topology on the space of…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
A moderate deviation principle for nonlinear functions of Gaussian processes is established. The nonlinear functions need not be locally bounded. Especially, the logarithm is allowed. (Thus, small deviations of the process are relevant.)…
We have shown recently that a Markov process conditioned on rare events involving time-integrated random variables can be described in the long-time limit by an effective Markov process, called the driven process, which is given…
We present precise moderate deviation probabilities, in both quenched and annealed settings, for a recurrent diffusion process with a Brownian potential. Our method relies on fine tools in stochastic calculus, including Kotani's lemma and…
In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…
We consider two Ito equations that evolve on different time scales. The equations are fully coupled in the sense that all coefficients may depend on both the "slow" and the "fast" processes and the diffusion terms may be correlated. The…
Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…
We present an algorithm to evaluate the large deviation functions associated to history-dependent observables. Instead of relying on a time discretisation procedure to approximate the dynamics, we provide a direct continuous-time algorithm,…