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Related papers: Extreme Value Statistics of Jump Processes

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We study extreme value statistics (EVS) for spatially extended models exhibiting mixed order phase transitions (MOT). These are phase transitions which exhibit features common to both first order (discontinuity of the order parameter) and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-18 Amir Bar , Satya N. Majumdar , Gregory Schehr , David Mukamel

We consider a bivariate process $X_t=(X^1_t,X^2_t)$, which is observed on a finite time interval $[0,T]$ at discrete times $0,\Delta_n,2\Delta_n,....$ Assuming that its two components $X^1$ and $X^2$ have jumps on $[0,T]$, we derive tests…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Jean Jacod , Viktor Todorov

Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-29 Lior Zarfaty , Eli Barkai , David A. Kessler

Distributional identities for a L\'evy process $X_t$, its quadratic variation process $V_t$ and its maximal jump processes, are derived, and used to make "small time" (as $t\downarrow0$) asymptotic comparisons between them. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Boris Buchmann , Yuguang Fan , Ross A. Maller

We consider a stochastic process driven by a diffusion and jumps. We devise a technique, which is based on a discrete record of observations, for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Cecilia Mancini

We derive exact expressions for the finite-time statistics of extrema (maximum and minimum) of the spatial displacement and the fluctuating entropy flow of biased random walks. Our approach captures key features of extreme events in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-02-10 Alexandre Guillet , Édgar Roldán , Frank Jülicher

The asymptotic analysis of high exceedance probabilities for Gaussian processes and fields has been a blooming research area since J. Pickands introduced the now-standard techniques in the late 60's. The \textit{vector-valued} processes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-12 Ievlev Pavel , Kriukov Nikolai

We compute exact asymptotic results for the probability of the occurrence of large deviations of the largest (smallest) eigenvalue of random matrices belonging to the Gaussian orthogonal, unitary and symplectic ensembles. In particular, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 David S. Dean , Satya N. Majumdar

We provide explicit sufficient conditions for absolute continuity and equivalence between the distributions of two jump-diffusion processes that can explode and be killed by a potential.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Patrick Cheridito , Damir Filipovic , Marc Yor

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-04 Marc Höll , Wanli Wang , Eli Barkai

The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-03 Likun Zhang , Benjamin A. Shaby

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Umberto Michelucci , Francesca Venturini

The seminal papers of Pickands [1,2] paved the way for a systematic study of high exceedance probabilities of both stationary and non-stationary Gaussian processes. Yet, in the vector-valued setting, due to the lack of key tools including…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-18 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Longmin Wang

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 N. R. Moloney , J. Davidsen

We study a discrete-time random walk on the non-negative integers, such that when 0 is reached a jump occurs to an arbitrary location, with given probabilities. We obtain an asymptotic formula for the expected position at large times, in…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-01 Guy Katriel

Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-06 Alessandro Vezzani , Raffaella Burioni

We study the large time behavior of the survival probability $\mathbb{P}_x\left(\tau_D>t\right)$ for symmetric jump processes in unbounded domains with a positive bottom of the spectrum. We prove asymptotic upper and lower bounds with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Phanuel Mariano , Jing Wang

This paper investigates extreme value theory for processes obtained by applying transformations to stationary Gaussian processes, also called subordinated Gaussian processes. The main contributions are as follows. First, we refine the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Shuyang Bai , Marie-Christine Duker

This paper addresses heavy-tailed large deviation estimates for the distribution tail of functionals of a class of spectrally one-sided L\'evy process. Our contribution is to show that these estimates remain valid in a near-critical regime.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Bart Kamphorst , Bert Zwart

We consider the extreme value statistics of centrally-biased random walks with asymptotically-zero drift in the ergodic regime. We fully characterize the asymptotic distribution of the maximum for this class of Markov chains lacking…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-28 Roberto Artuso , Manuele Onofri , Gaia Pozzoli , Mattia Radice