Related papers: Enhancing Asynchronous Time Series Forecasting wit…

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Downsampling-based methods for time series forecasting have attracted increasing attention due to their superiority in capturing sequence trends. However, this approaches mainly capture dependencies within subsequences but neglect…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

Temporal knowledge graphs, representing the dynamic relationships and interactions between entities over time, have been identified as a promising approach for event forecasting. However, a limitation of most temporal knowledge graph…

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

We address the problem of learning Granger causality from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. In particular, we are interested in discovering instance-level causal structures in an unsupervised manner. Instance-level…

Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) are flexible models to capture complex temporal inter-dependencies between labeled events. These models inherently learn two predictive distributions: one for the arrival times of events and…

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have recently become increasingly interesting for learning dynamics in graph data. A reason for this is that learning on dynamic graph data is becoming more relevant, since data from many scientific fields,…

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

The classical temporal point process (TPP) constructs an intensity function by taking the occurrence times into account. Nevertheless, occurrence time may not be the only relevant factor, other contextual data, termed covariates, may also…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPPs) provide a principled framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences by conditioning on the history of past events. However, most existing MTPP models rely on channel-mixing strategies that encode…

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to…

Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time…

In recent years, marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) have emerged as a powerful modeling machinery to characterize asynchronous events in a wide variety of applications. MTPPs have demonstrated significant potential in predicting…

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for modeling event sequences on the Web, such as user reviews, social media posts, and online transactions. However, traditional TPP models often struggle to effectively incorporate the…

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…

Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…