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Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are increasingly used to replace computationally demanding electronic-structure calculations to model matter at the atomic scale. The most commonly used model architectures are constrained to…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Filippo Bigi , Paolo Pegolo , Arslan Mazitov , Jonathan Schmidt , Michele Ceriotti

The past few years have seen the development of ``universal'' machine-learning interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) capable of approximating the ground-state potential energy surface across a wide range of chemical structures and compositions…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-04-20 Sofiia Chorna , Davide Tisi , Cesare Malosso , Wei Bin How , Michele Ceriotti , Sanggyu Chong

Universal machine-learned interatomic potentials (U-MLIPs) have demonstrated broad applicability across diverse atomistic systems but often require fine-tuning to achieve task-specific accuracy. While the number of available U-MLIPs and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-08-25 Xiaoqing Liu , Kehan Zeng , Zedong Luo , Yangshuai Wang , Teng Zhao , Zhenli Xu

Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Daniel Ries , Joshua Michalenko , Tyler Ganter , Rashad Imad-Fayez Baiyasi , Jason Adams

Reliable uncertainty measures are required when using data based machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for atomistic simulations. In this work, we propose for sparse Gaussian Process Regression type MLIP a stochastic uncertainty…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-12-31 Mads-Peter Verner Christiansen , Nikolaj Rønne , Bjørk Hammer

Machine learning plays an increasingly important role in computational chemistry and materials science, complementing computationally intensive ab initio and first-principles methods. Despite their utility, machine-learning models often…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-05-06 Makoto Takamoto , Viktor Zaverkin , Mathias Niepert

Deploying deep learning models in safety-critical applications remains a very challenging task, mandating the provision of assurances for the dependable operation of these models. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods estimate the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Daniel Bethell , Simos Gerasimou , Radu Calinescu

Universal machine learning interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) represent arguably the most successful application of machine learning to materials science, demonstrating remarkable performance across diverse applications. However, critical…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-08-26 Antoine Loew , Jonathan Schmidt , Silvana Botti , Miguel A. L. Marques

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a crucial but challenging task in many high-dimensional regression or learning problems to increase the confidence of a given predictor. We develop a new data-driven approach for UQ in regression that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Frederik Hoppe , Claudio Mayrink Verdun , Hannah Laus , Felix Krahmer , Holger Rauhut

Universal machine-learned interatomic potentials (uMLIPs) offer a promising approach to performing atomistic simulations at near-DFT accuracy with greatly reduced computational cost. Here, we present a new high-temperature benchmarking…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-29 Connor W. Edwards , Jack D. Evans

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Tom Wollschläger , Stephan Günnemann

The estimation of uncertainties associated with predictions from quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models can accelerate the drug discovery process by identifying promising experiments and allowing an efficient allocation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Hannah Rosa Friesacher , Emma Svensson , Susanne Winiwarter , Lewis Mervin , Adam Arany , Ola Engkvist

This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Alex Treacher , Kevin Nguyen , Dylan Owens , Daniel Heitjan , Albert Montillo

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Nick Winovich , Mitchell Daneker , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic interpretation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-06 Haoyi Song , Ruihan Ji , Naichen Shi , Fan Lai , Raed Al Kontar

Ice sheet simulations suffer from vast parametric uncertainties, such as the basal sliding boundary condition or geothermal heat flux. Quantifying the resulting uncertainties in predictions is of utmost importance to support judicious…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-12-10 Nicole Aretz , Max Gunzburger , Mathieu Morlighem , Karen Willcox

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-09 Sophia Sun