Related papers: Probabilistic solar flare forecasting using histor…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
We aim to better characterize the conditions of the solar corona, especially with respect to the occurrence of confined and eruptive flares. In this work, we model the coronal evolution around 231 large flares observed during solar cycle…
A test of a new Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction (Wheatland 2004a) is presented. The approach uses the past history of flaring together with phenomenological rules of flare statistics to make a prediction for the probability of…
Feature tracking and recognition are increasingly common tools for data analysis, but are typically implemented on an ad-hoc basis by individual research groups, limiting the usefulness of derived results when selection effects and…
The paper presents results of a search for helioseismic events (sunquakes) produced by M-X class solar flares during Solar Cycle 24. The search is performed by analyzing photospheric Dopplergrams from Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI).…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
A deep learning model is often considered a black-box model, as its internal workings tend to be opaque to the user. Because of the lack of transparency, it is challenging to understand the reasoning behind the model's predictions. Here, we…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
Active region NOAA 13842 produced two successive solar flares: an X7.1-class flare on October 1, 2024, and an X9.0-class flare on October 3, 2024. This study continues our previous simulation work that successfully reproduced the X7.1-class…
Current post-processing techniques for the correction of atmospheric seeing in solar observations -- such as Speckle interferometry and Phase Diversity methods -- have limitations when it comes to their reconstructive capabilities of solar…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to…
Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the…
A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from August 2011 to July 2012. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study…
Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this…
This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting $\geq$M-class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique…
The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the…
All three components of the current density are required to compute the heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the resistive…