Related papers: Probabilistic solar flare forecasting using histor…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
The polar field reversal is a crucial process in the cyclic evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun.Various important characteristics of a solar cycle, such as its duration and strength, and also the cycle predictability, are…
The prediction of solar flares, eruptions, and high energy particle storms is of great societal importance. The data mining approach to forecasting has been shown to be very promising. Benchmark datasets are a key element in the further…
Solar flares occur due to the sudden release of energy stored in active-region magnetic fields. To date, the pre-cursors to flaring are still not fully understood, although there is evidence that flaring is related to changes in the…
We present two recurrent neural networks (RNNs), one based on gated recurrent units and the other based on long short-term memory, for predicting whether an active region (AR) that produces an M- or X-class flare will also produce a coronal…
In this paper, solar cycles 21 to 24 were compared using complex network analysis. A network was constructed for these four solar cycles to facilitate the comparison. In these networks, the nodes represent the active regions of the Sun that…
We present analysis of the magnetic field in seven solar flare regions accompanied by the pulsations of hard X-ray (HXR) emission. These flares were studied by Kuznetsov et al. (2016) (Paper~I), and chosen here because of the availability…
The need to forecast solar irradiation at a specific location over short-time horizons has acquired immense importance. In this paper, we report on analyses results involving statistical and machine learning techniques to predict hourly…
We present a Python tool to generate a standard dataset from solar images that allows for user-defined selection criteria and a range of pre-processing steps. Our Python tool works with all image products from both the Solar and…
Violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic phenomena. However, how magnetic fields reconnecting in the flare differ from non-flaring magnetic fields remains unclear owing to the lack of studies of the flare magnetic…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
We present the discovery of a relationship between the maximum ratio of the flare flux (namely, 0.5-4 Ang to the 1-8 Ang flux) and non-flare background (namely, the 1-8 Ang background flux), which clearly separates flares into classes by…
Solar energy forecasting has seen tremendous growth in the last decade using historical time series collected from a weather station, such as weather variables wind speed and direction, solar radiance, and temperature. It helps in the…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
We present first results of the hybrid data-driven magnetofrictional (MF) and data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of solar active region NOAA 11158, which produced an X-class flare and coronal mass ejection on 2011…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is indicative of expected energy yield and is essential for efficient grid distribution and planning. Traditionally, these forecasts are based on meteorological physics…
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues the official U.S. government forecast for M-class and X-class solar flares, yet the skill of these forecasts has never been comprehensively verified. In this study, we evaluate the SWPC…