Related papers: Stochastic Variational Inference for GARCH Models

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

In many applications involving large dataset or online updating, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) provides a scalable way to compute parameter estimates and has gained increasing popularity due to its numerical convenience and memory…

Recently, Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) has been increasingly attractive thanks to its ability to find good posterior approximations of probabilistic models. It optimizes the variational objective with stochastic optimization,…

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all…

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) lets us scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. It uses stochastic optimization to fit a variational distribution, following easy-to-compute noisy natural gradients. As with most traditional…

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

Gaussian variational approximation is a popular methodology to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference especially in high dimensional and large data settings. To control the computational cost while being able to capture…

We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…

Stochastic Gradient Descent with a constant learning rate (constant SGD) simulates a Markov chain with a stationary distribution. With this perspective, we derive several new results. (1) We show that constant SGD can be used as an…

We introduce a novel and efficient algorithm called the stochastic approximate gradient descent (SAGD), as an alternative to the stochastic gradient descent for cases where unbiased stochastic gradients cannot be trivially obtained.…

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…

We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Our article considers a Gaussian variational approximation of the posterior density in a high-dimensional state space model. The variational parameters to be optimized are the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the approximation. The…

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…