Related papers: Entropy-Based Strategies for Multi-Bracket Pools
Probabilistic predictions are probability distributions over the set of possible outcomes. Such predictions quantify the uncertainty in the outcome, making them essential for effective decision making. By combining multiple predictions, the…
We propose local prediction pools as a method for combining the predictive distributions of a set of experts conditional on a set of variables believed to be related to the predictive accuracy of the experts. This is done in a two step…
We study the existing algorithms that solve the multidimensional martingale optimal transport. Then we provide a new algorithm based on entropic regularization and Newton's method. Then we provide theoretical convergence rate results and we…
Suppose that the outcomes of a roulette table are not entirely random, in the sense that there exists a successful betting strategy. Is there a successful `separable' strategy, in the sense that it does not use the winnings from betting on…
This paper shows how to evolve numerically the maximum entropy probability distributions for a given set of constraints, which is a variational calculus problem. An evolutionary algorithm can obtain approximations to some well-known…
We introduce the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) as a measure to evaluate and compare pre-tournament predictions, where predictions of the full tournament results are required to be available before the tournament begins. The TRPS…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
We develop value iteration-based algorithms to solve in a unified manner different classes of combinatorial zero-sum games with mean-payoff type rewards. These algorithms rely on an oracle, evaluating the dynamic programming operator up to…
Single-elimination tournaments are the standard paradigm both for the main tennis professional associations. Schedules are generated by allocating first seeded and then unseeded players with seeds prevented from encountering each other…
In collaborative forecast projects, the combining of multiple probabilistic forecasts into an ensemble is standard practice, with linear pooling being a common combination method. The weighting scheme of a linear pool should be tailored to…
Entropy estimation plays a crucial role in various fields, such as information theory, statistical data science, and machine learning. However, traditional entropy estimation methods often struggle with complex data distributions.…
Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for…
The most important factors which contribute to the efficiency of game-theoretical algorithms are time and game complexity. In this study, we have offered an elegant method to deal with high complexity of game theoretic multi-objective…
This work proposes a unified framework for portfolio allocation, covering both asset selection and optimization, based on a multiple-hypothesis predict-then-optimize approach. The portfolio is modeled as a structured ensemble, where each…
The Traveling Tournament Problem (TTP) is a challenging combinatorial optimization problem that has attracted the interest of researchers around the world. This paper proposes an improved search neighbourhood for the TTP that has been…
Betting strategies are often expressed formally as martingales. A martingale is called integer-valued if each bet must be an integer value. Integer-valued strategies correspond to the fact that in most betting situations, there is a minimum…
We study the problem of whether a betting-strategy can be decomposed into an equivalent set of simpler betting-strategies, such as betting-strategies that bet on a restricted set of stages or bet on a restricted of favorable outcomes. We…
What is the relationship between plausibility logic and the principle of maximum entropy? When does the principle give unreasonable or wrong results? When is it appropriate to use the rule `expectation = average'? Can plausibility logic…
An accumulator is a bet that presents a rather unique payout structure, in that it combines multiple bets into a wager that can generate a total payout given by the multiplication of the individual odds of its parts. These potentially…
This paper describes the N-Tuple Bandit Evolutionary Algorithm (NTBEA), an optimisation algorithm developed for noisy and expensive discrete (combinatorial) optimisation problems. The algorithm is applied to two game-based hyper-parameter…