Related papers: Entropy-Based Strategies for Multi-Bracket Pools
This paper explores multi-entry strategies for betting pools related to single-elimination tournaments. In such betting pools, participants select winners of games, and their respective score is a weighted sum of the number of correct…
We focus on a permutation betting market under parimutuel call auction model where traders bet on the final ranking of n candidates. We present a Proportional Betting mechanism for this market. Our mechanism allows the traders to bet on any…
We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using…
Balanced knockout tournaments are ubiquitous in sports competitions and are also used in decision-making and elections. The traditional computational question, that asks to compute a draw (optimal draw) that maximizes the winning…
Existence of incomplete and imprecise data has moved the database paradigm from deterministic to proba- babilistic information. Probabilistic databases contain tuples that may or may not exist with some probability. As a result, the number…
We consider a specialized form of risk management for betting opportunities with low payout frequency, presented in particular for exotic horse race wagering. An optimization problem is developed which limits losing streaks with high…
Using results from neurobiology on perceptual decision making and value-based decision making, the problem of decision making between lotteries is reformulated in an abstract space where uncertain prospects are mapped to corresponding…
In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization…
Stochastic Optimal Control provides a unified mathematical framework for solving complex decision-making problems, encompassing paradigms such as maximum entropy reinforcement learning(RL) and imitation learning(IL). However, conventional…
We introduce a betting game, where the gambler aims to guess the last success epoch from past observed data. The player may bet on the event that no further successes occur, or choose a `trap' which is any span of future times. In the…
We describe a maximum entropy approach for computing volumes and counting integer points in polyhedra. To estimate the number of points from a particular set X in R^n in a polyhedron P in R^n, by solving a certain entropy maximization…
In this work, we study the problem of computing a tuple's expected multiplicity over probabilistic databases with bag semantics (where each tuple is associated with a multiplicity) exactly and approximately. We consider bag-TIDBs where we…
The old adage says that it is better to be lucky than to be good, but when it comes to winning NCAA tournament pools, do you need to be both? This paper attempts to answer this question using data from the 2014 men's basketball tournament…
In online betting, the bookmaker can update the payoffs it offers on a particular event many times before the event takes place, and the updated payoffs may depend on the bets accumulated thus far. We study the problem of bookmaking with…
Citizens' assemblies are a form of democratic innovation in which a randomly selected panel of constituents deliberates on questions of public interest. We study a novel goal for the selection of panel members: maximizing the entropy of the…
We consider the problem of selecting a portfolio of entries of fixed cardinality for contests with top-heavy payoff structures, i.e. most of the winnings go to the top-ranked entries. This framework is general and can be used to model a…
Tournament solutions provide methods for selecting the "best" alternatives from a tournament and have found applications in a wide range of areas. Previous work has shown that several well-known tournament solutions almost never rule out…
This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly…
Within the task of collaborative filtering two challenges for computing conditional probabilities exist. First, the amount of training data available is typically sparse with respect to the size of the domain. Thus, support for higher-order…
We consider the manipulability of tournament rules which map the results of $\binom{n}{2}$ pairwise matches and select a winner. Prior work designs simple tournament rules such that no pair of teams can manipulate the outcome of their match…