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In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Hua Xu , Julián D. Arias-Londoño , Juan I. Godino-Llorente

We propose to use Bayesian optimization (BO) to improve the efficiency of the design selection process in clinical trials. BO is a method to optimize expensive black-box functions, by using a regression as a surrogate to guide the search.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Jakob Richter , Tim Friede , Jörg Rahnenführer

We introduce a fully stochastic gradient based approach to Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). Our approach utilizes variational lower bounds on the expected information gain (EIG) of an experiment that can be simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-28 Adam Foster , Martin Jankowiak , Matthew O'Meara , Yee Whye Teh , Tom Rainforth

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Özge Sürer , Matthew Plumlee , Stefan M. Wild

Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to conduct the most informative experiment under budget constraints to update the prior knowledge of a system to its posterior from the experimental data in a Bayesian framework. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann , Peng Chen

Crystal plasticity finite element model (CPFEM) is a powerful numerical simulation in the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) toolboxes that relates microstructures to homogenized materials properties and establishes the…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-04-17 Anh Tran , Hojun Lim

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Vojtech Kejzlar , Mookyong Son , Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a powerful tool to reduce the cost of running a sequence of experiments. When based on the Expected Information Gain (EIG), design optimization corresponds to the maximization of some…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Jacopo Iollo , Christophe Heinkelé , Pierre Alliez , Florence Forbes

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Functional data are ubiquitous in scientific modeling. For instance, quantities of interest are modeled as functions of time, space, energy, density, etc. Uncertainty quantification methods for computer models with functional response have…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-25 Devin Francom , J. Derek Tucker , Gabriel Huerta , Kurtis Shuler , Daniel Ries

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

Identifying and calibrating quantitative dynamical models for physical quantum systems is important for a variety of applications. Here we present a closed-loop Bayesian learning algorithm for estimating multiple unknown parameters in a…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

A common approach to assess the performance of fire insulation panels is the component additive method (CAM). The parameters of the CAM are based on the temperature-dependent thermal material properties of the panels. These material…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-08 P. -R. Wagner , R. Fahrni , M. Klippel , A. Frangi , B. Sudret

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for nonlinear inverse problems within the Bayesian framework. Optimizing the data acquisition process for large-scale nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems is a computationally challenging task…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Karina Koval , Ruanui Nicholson

We propose a computational framework, Hetero-EUCLID, for segmentation and parameter identification to characterize the full hyperelastic behavior of all constituents of a heterogeneous material. In this work, we leverage the Bayesian-EUCLID…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-19 Kanhaiya Lal Chaurasiya , Saurav Dutta , Siddhant Kumar , Akshay Joshi

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek

Calibrating mathematical models of biological processes is essential for achieving predictive accuracy and gaining mechanistic insight. However, this task remains challenging due to limited and noisy data, significant biological…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-04 Piotr Gwiazda , Alexey Kazarnikov , Anna Marciniak-Czochra , Zuzanna Szymańska

Accelerated discovery in materials science demands autonomous systems capable of dynamically formulating and solving design problems. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that leverages Bayesian optimization over a problem…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-11 Danial Khatamsaz , Joseph Wagner , Brent Vela , Raymundo Arroyave , Douglas L. Allaire

Bayesian experimental design (BED) offers a principled framework for optimizing data acquisition by leveraging probabilistic inference. However, practical implementations of BED are often compromised by model discrepancy, i.e., the mismatch…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Huchen Yang , Xinghao Dong , Jin-Long Wu