Related papers: SICO: Simulation for Infection Control Operations
In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…
Severe infectious diseases such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pose a huge threat to public health. Stringent control measures, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, while having significant effects, also bring huge economic…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
In this work we present a framework which may transform research and praxis in epidemic planning. Introduced in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we provide a concrete demonstration of the way algorithms may learn from…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…
This work introduces a novel epidemiological model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains, reinfections due to waning immunity response over time and an optimal control formulation. This enables us to derive optimal mitigation…
In the context of epidemic spreading, many intricate dynamical patterns can emerge due to the cooperation of different types of pathogens or the interaction between the disease spread and other failure propagation mechanism. To unravel such…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Accurate immunological models offer the possibility of performing highthroughput experiments in silico that can predict, or at least suggest, in vivo phenomena. In this chapter, we compare various models of immunological memory. We first…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…
This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called \textit{SARS--CoV--2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2}. The study is developed within a…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be…
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted health systems and economies worldwide. Significant global efforts are therefore ongoing to improve vaccine efficacies, optimize vaccine deployment, and develop new antiviral therapies to combat…
Various non pharmaceutical interventions have been settled to minimise the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak. We build a framework to analyse the dynamics of non pharmaceutical interventions, to distinguish between mitigations measures…
During an infectious disease outbreak, policymakers must balance medical costs with social and economic burdens and seek interventions that minimize both. To support this decision-making process, we developed a framework that integrates…
The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to…