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We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey…
Social inflation, which is the rise in liability claim costs beyond general economic inflation, has become a major concern for insurers and reinsurers, yet it is difficult to quantify because litigation outcomes are heavy-tailed and the mix…
This paper studies the 2021 U.S. inflation forecasting failure. I show that the failure was primarily driven by sample composition rather than functional-form misspecification: estimation samples dominated by the Great Moderation…
This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a…
There are hidden observables for inflation, such as features localized in position space, which do not manifest themselves when only one inflation trajectory is considered. To address this issue, we investigate inflation dynamics in a…
We study the behaviour of inflationary density perturbations in the vicinity of horizon crossing, using numerical evolution of the relevant mode equations. We explore two specific scenarios. In one, inflation is temporarily ended because a…
Recent highly cited research uses time-series evidence to argue the decline in interest rates led to a large rise in economic profits and markups. We show the size of these estimates is sensitive to the sample start date: The rise in…
Inflation is painful, for firms, customers, employees, and society. But careful study of periods of hyperinflation point to ways that firms can adapt. In particular, companies need to think about how to change prices regularly and cheaply,…
Inflation generally assumes a field with nonzero potential that leads to inflationary expansion happening at arbitrarily early times. We demonstrate potentially observable consequences of inflation with a finite initial time in a model in…
Plateau inflation is an experimentally consistent framework in which the scale of inflation can be kept relatively low. Close to the edge of the plateau, scalar perturbations are subject to a strong tachyonic instability. Tachyonic…
We construct a two-stage inflationary model which can accommodate early inflation at a scale $\Lambda_1$ as well as a second stage of inflation at $\Lambda_2$ with a single scalar field $\phi$. We use a symmetric potential, valid in a…
Science is a growing system, exhibiting ~4% annual growth in publications and ~1.8% annual growth in the number of references per publication. Combined these trends correspond to a 12-year doubling period in the total supply of references,…
Empirical evidence suggests that there is little to no correlation between the rate of inflation and the size of price change. Economists have hitherto taken this to mean that monetary shocks do not generate much deviation in relative…
We discuss a universal bound on any excitation of heavy fields during inflation: the ratio of the heavy field's energy density to the one driving inflation must be less than the maximally allowed relative amplitude of oscillations in the…
We study `hilltop' inflation, in which inflation takes place near a maximum of the potential. Viewed as a model of inflation after the observable Universe leaves the horizon (observable inflation) hilltop inflation is rather generic. If the…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
Little is known about the microscopic physics that gave rise to inflation in our universe. There are many reasons to wonder if the underlying description requires a careful arrangement of ingredients or if inflation was the result of an…
Consumers are sensitive to medical prices when consuming care, but delays in price information may distort moral hazard. We study how medical bills affect household spillover spending following utilization, leveraging variation in insurer…
In this work we propose a statistical approach to handling sources of theoretical uncertainty in string theory models of inflation. By viewing a model of inflation as a probabilistic graph, we show that there is an inevitable information…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…