Related papers: The Lindy Effect
Evolution has resulted in highly developed abilities in many natural intelligences to quickly and accurately predict mechanical phenomena. Humans have successfully developed laws of physics to abstract and model such mechanical phenomena.…
The concept of typicality refers to properties holding for the "overwhelming majority" of cases and is a fundamental idea of the qualitative approach to dynamical problems. We argue that measure-theoretical typicality would be the adequate…
The density matrix yields probabilistic information about the outcome of measurements on a quantum system, but it does not distinguish between classical randomness in the preparation of the system and entanglement with its environment.…
In settings ranging from weather forecasts to political prognostications to financial projections, probability estimates of future binary outcomes often evolve over time. For example, the estimated likelihood of rain on a specific day…
A growing literature provides evidence on multigenerational inequality -- the extent to which socio-economic advantages persist across three or more generations. This chapter reviews its main findings and implications. Most studies find…
According to quantum mechanics, statements about the future made by sentient beings like us are, in general, neither true nor false; they must satisfy a many-valued logic. I propose that the truth value of such a statement should be…
In many situations people make sequences of similar, but unrelated decisions. Such decision sequences are prevalent in many important contexts including judicial judgments, loan approvals, college admissions, and athletic competitions. A…
Galaxies are gigantic physical systems having a typical size of many tens of thousands of light years. Thus any change at the center of the galaxy will affect the rim only tens of millennia later. Those retardation effects seems to be…
How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…
Statistical prediction plays an important role in many decision processes such as university budgeting (depending on the number of students who will enroll), capital budgeting (depending on the remaining lifetime of a fleet of systems), the…
In this article,a three parameter generalisation of inverse lindley distribution is obtained, with the purpose of obtaining a more flexible model relative to the behaviour of hazard rate functions. Various statistical properties such as…
In this paper a new lifetime distribution which is obtained by compounding Lindley and geometric distributions, named Lindley-geometric (LG) distribution, is introduced. Several properties of the new distribution such as density, failure…
There are three principle paradigms of statistics: Bayesian, frequentist and information-based inference. Although these paradigms are in agreement in some contexts, the Lindley paradox describes a class of problems, models of unknown…
Social scientists have long sought to understand why certain people, items, or options become more popular than others. One seemingly intuitive theory is that inherent value drives popularity. An alternative theory claims that popularity is…
Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…
A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations. However, due to their heavy-tailed distribution, citations are fundamentally difficult to predict. Instead, to characterize scientific impact, we address two analogous questions asked…
In 1957, Lindley published "A statistical paradox" in Biometrika, revealing a fundamental conflict between frequentist and Bayesian inference as sample size approaches infinity. We present a new paradox of a different kind: a conflict…
We predict that the speed of a diffusion front is modified by tidal forces. This effect is small in astrophysical situations, but could be significant - indeed tunably so - in "gravitational analogues" such as gradient-index lenses.…
The valuation process that economic agents undergo for investments with uncertain payoff typically depends on their statistical views on possible future outcomes, their attitudes toward risk, and, of course, the payoff structure itself.…